Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (84%). 3 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2028?
3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (43%) · Yes at 17¢ · $26K held · ends Jan 1, 2029
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
7
Yes 43%
$26.3K
-$946.05
17.2¢ → 16.5¢
-4% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 17%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 7 top traders (43%)Underdog side (market favors No 84%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Late
706h old
Flip Quality
Clean
1 consensus flip
43% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DR dromedaryyCTR | Yesavg 17.2¢ | $24.3K | $23.3K | $-1.1K | 35% 35-65 (100) |
 MEPP | Noavg 81¢ | $1.8K | $1.9K | +$56.47 | 64% 633-352 (985) |
 Dragontree | Noavg 76¢ | $342 | $375.75 | +$33.75 | 58% 1250-888 (2138) |
 PMTraderAdam | Noavg 81.9¢ | $332 | $334 | +$2 | 77% 830-249 (1079) |
IM immanuelcanCTR | Yesavg 15¢ | $186.56 | $205.22 | +$18.66 | 53% 906-789 (1695) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR | Yesavg 17.5¢ | $170 | $165 | -$5 | 53% 6690-5887 (12577) |
 PaddyAlpha<$100 | Noavg 82¢ | $54.53 | $55.52 | +$1 | 59% 986-684 (1670) |
Invested
$24,320.31
Value
$23.3K
PnL
$-1.1K
Record
35%
35-65 (100)
MEPPInvested
$1,829.73
Value
$1.9K
PnL
+$56.47
Record
64%
633-352 (985)
DragontreeInvested
$342
Value
$375.75
PnL
+$33.75
Record
58%
1250-888 (2138)
PMTraderAdamInvested
$332
Value
$334
PnL
+$2
Record
77%
830-249 (1079)
Invested
$186.56
Value
$205.22
PnL
+$18.66
Record
53%
906-789 (1695)
Invested
$170
Value
$165
PnL
-$5
Record
53%
6690-5887 (12577)
PaddyAlpha<$100Invested
$54.53
Value
$55.52
PnL
+$1
Record
59%
986-684 (1670)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
16.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.