Will Anthropic IPO by November 25, 2026?
6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (86%) · Yes at 79¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 26
🔬
Research candidate
Yes
7
Yes 86%
$3.2K
$447.82
65.7¢ → 78.5¢
+19% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
Research candidateYes at 79%
Matches a rule that looked positive after costs in the short windows of our Oct 22 2026 backtest. The full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found no evidence for any of these rules: out of sample they lost money or were noise. A label for a pattern that once looked good, not an edge and not a recommendation.
- Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 68%
Freshness
Late
199h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
86% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 betwick | Yesavg 52.5¢ | $986.21 | $1.5K | +$451.82 | 55% 353-292 (645) |
0X 0x00000000000000000000000000000000000000 | Yesavg 86¢ | $583.08 | $539.01 | -$30.51 | 42% 2258-3075 (5333) |
FU Fulgurator | Yesavg 87.9¢ | $491.3 | $456.33 | -$34.97 | 92% 61-5 (66) |
 KimchiCapital | Yesavg 57.1¢ | $271.54 | $378.03 | +$106.49 | 75% 540-176 (716) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR | Noavg 26.4¢ | $275.43 | $239.89 | -$35.53 | 36% 16072-28083 (44155) |
 alanhutton | Yesavg 86¢ | $111.96 | $102.34 | -$9.62 | 68% 335-158 (493) |
 StupidMonkeyyy<$100 | Yesavg 71.7¢ | $1.61 | $1.77 | +$0.16 | 50% 147-145 (292) |
betwickInvested
$986.21
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$451.82
Record
55%
353-292 (645)
Invested
$583.08
Value
$539.01
PnL
-$30.51
Record
42%
2258-3075 (5333)
Invested
$491.3
Value
$456.33
PnL
-$34.97
Record
92%
61-5 (66)
KimchiCapitalInvested
$271.54
Value
$378.03
PnL
+$106.49
Record
75%
540-176 (716)
Invested
$275.43
Value
$239.89
PnL
-$35.53
Record
36%
16072-28083 (44155)
alanhuttonInvested
$111.96
Value
$102.34
PnL
-$9.62
Record
68%
335-158 (493)
StupidMonkeyyy<$100Invested
$1.61
Value
$1.77
PnL
+$0.16
Record
50%
147-145 (292)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
78.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.