Consensus PnL $555K · win rate 54% (243–206, n=449) · was PM monthly #524 · holds 20 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$554.7K
Record
243W / 206L
Win Rate
54.0%
of 449 settled
Batting Avg
57.9%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1513
Source
PM monthly #524 + pinned
Trades
31,559
Markets
756
Volume
$16.9M
Top consensus positions
20 in listed consensus markets · 8 of 20 on the consensus side (40%)- Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?No $152K · now 95¢ · in at 93¢with the consensus (79% of 106)
- Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Yes $35K · now 71¢ · in at 70¢with the consensus (82% of 108)
- Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?No $35K · now 70¢ · in at 70¢with the consensus (76% of 92)
- NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?Yes $12K · now 12¢ · in at 25¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?Yes $9.0K · now 73¢ · in at 57¢with the consensus (76% of 29)
- Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026?Yes $6.5K · now 81¢ · in at 57¢with the consensus (64% of 28)
- Will there be no Hormuz agreement?No $5.1K · now 3¢ · in at 6¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will Anthropic IPO by December 15, 2026?Yes $4.8K · now 86¢ · in at 65¢with the consensus (67% of 24)
Specialties
597 settled consensus markets · held side won 55% at an average entry of 48¢- Mentions
+15 pts
side won 68% of 98 · avg entry 54¢
ROI +7%
- Tech
+13 pts
side won 52% of 48 · avg entry 39¢
ROI +4%
- Geopolitics
+5 pts
side won 60% of 162 · avg entry 56¢
ROI +2%
Weakest: Elections — held side won 31% of 58 at an average 32¢ entry (−1 pts against the price), ROI +3%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 39%(won 11% of 235)
- 30–50¢: 11%(won 60% of 67)
- 50–70¢: 15%(won 71% of 87)
- 70¢ and up: 35%(won 95% of 208)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.