Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (98%). 6 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Anthropic not IPO by December 31, 2027?

6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (86%) · Yes at 2.3¢ · $419 held · ends Jan 1, 2028

Yes2¢No98¢Ends Sat, Jan 1, 2028View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 86%

Total Value

$419.37

Combined PnL

-$230.68

Smart Money Entry

6.9¢ → 2.3¢

-66% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 2%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 7 top traders (86%)Underdog side (market favors No 98%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes2%

No98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No1 trader

Total Value$259.35

Total Shares266

Combined PnL+$11.19

Yes6 traders

Total Value$159.76

Total Shares6,591

Combined PnL-$241.87

No — 14%Yes — 86%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+72 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 62%

Freshness

Late

1055h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

23 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

86% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 62% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on No) and the top 1000 (7 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleYes 80% · 5

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 86% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Car	Noavg 93.4¢	$248.16	$259.35	+$11.19	67% 4173-2038 (6211)
occasionalAwarenessCTR	Yesavg 11.3¢	$325.4	$67.44	-$257.97	52% 285-262 (547)
JO JordanMooneyCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.3¢	$92.33	$32.38	+$10.97	36% 1887-3307 (5194)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 6¢	$0.21	$31.19	+$19.85	21% 2284-8698 (10982)
mombilCTR<$100	Yesavg 4¢	$32.92	$19.33	-$13.59	55% 1192-966 (2158)
GI GingerMcKennaCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.5¢	$64.53	$7.08	-$0.39	38% 2935-4692 (7627)
0X 0x39AaEd185b92e99a78249610cc14A589B764583C-1759470981616CTR<$100	Yesavg 3.1¢	$3.1	$2.35	-$0.75	45% 4134-5011 (9145)

Car

Invested

$248.16

Value

$259.35

PnL

+$11.19

Record

67%

4173-2038 (6211)

occasionalAwarenessCTR

Yes

Invested

$325.4

Value

$67.44

PnL

-$257.97

Record

52%

285-262 (547)

JordanMooneyCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$92.33

Value

$32.38

PnL

+$10.97

Record

36%

1887-3307 (5194)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.21

Value

$31.19

PnL

+$19.85

Record

21%

2284-8698 (10982)

mombilCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$32.92

Value

$19.33

PnL

-$13.59

Record

55%

1192-966 (2158)

GingerMcKennaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$64.53

Value

$7.08

PnL

-$0.39

Record

38%

2935-4692 (7627)

0x39AaEd185b92e99a78249610cc14A589B764583C-1759470981616CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.1

Value

$2.35

PnL

-$0.75

Record

45%

4134-5011 (9145)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 2%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 7 top traders (86%)Underdog side (market favors No 98%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+72 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 62%

Freshness

Late

1055h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

23 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

86% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 62% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on No) and the top 1000 (7 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleYes 80% · 5

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 86% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance3.4%

2.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2817.46

Max Loss

-$100.00

2917.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.