Consensus PnL -$29K · win rate 57% (4–3, n=7) · was PM monthly #979 · holds 14 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$-29.1K
Record
4W / 3L
Win Rate
57.0%
of 7 settled
Batting Avg
0.0%
Status
Unprofitable
Win-rate rank
#1373
Source
PM monthly #979
Trades
28
Markets
23
Volume
$347.5K
Top consensus positions
14 in listed consensus markets · 9 of 14 on the consensus side (64%)- Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?Yes $259K · now 40¢ · in at 37¢with the consensus (83% of 42)
- Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?Yes $25K · now 12¢ · in at 18¢with the consensus (84% of 20)
- Will Anthropic’s market cap be 1.8T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027?No $4.2K · now 45¢ · in at 44¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election?Yes $3.3K · now 2¢ · in at 4¢with the consensus (92% of 12)
- Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election?Yes $2.2K · now 1¢ · in at 2¢with the consensus (93% of 15)
- Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO day?No $953 · now 99¢ · in at 56¢with the consensus (25% of 12)
- Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election?Yes $714 · now 1¢ · in at 2¢with the consensus (90% of 10)
- Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day?No $347 · now 79¢ · in at 67¢against the consensus (Yes)
Specialties
4 settled consensus markets · held side won 100% at an average entry of 54¢No topic with 10 or more settled markets where BurstedBubble's side won clearly (2 points or more) more often than its price implied.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 0%
- 30–50¢: 75%(won 100% of 3)
- 50–70¢: 0%
- 70¢ and up: 25%(won 100% of 1)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.