Will Anthropic’s market cap be $600B or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (71%) · Yes at 97¢ · $7K held · ends Jan 1, 2028
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
7
Yes 71%
$7.0K
$332.36
93.1¢ → 97.4¢
+5% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 97%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 90%
Freshness
Late
4740h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
15 consensus flips
71% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 GollumGekko | Yesavg 92.4¢ | $4.5K | $4.7K | +$235.62 | 68% 2074-958 (3032) |
QM QMG-CORE | Yesavg 94.5¢ | $1.5K | $1.6K | +$45.43 | 77% 1408-416 (1824) |
 DEGENKHAN | Yesavg 96.2¢ | $341.12 | $345.04 | +$3.92 | 66% 1107-565 (1672) |
 Talophex | Yesavg 93¢ | $279 | $292.05 | +$13.05 | 91% 929-95 (1024) |
 occasionalAwarenessCTR<$100 | Noavg 2¢ | $71.43 | $93.06 | +$21.64 | 52% 284-262 (546) |
 NadmiCTR<$100 | Noavg 2¢ | $38.77 | $50.18 | +$11.41 | 47% 2036-2278 (4314) |
 Tenebrus7<$100 | Yesavg 92.2¢ | $23.05 | $24.34 | +$1.29 | 73% 2953-1072 (4025) |
GollumGekkoInvested
$4,467.86
Value
$4.7K
PnL
+$235.62
Record
68%
2074-958 (3032)
Invested
$1,518.01
Value
$1.6K
PnL
+$45.43
Record
77%
1408-416 (1824)
DEGENKHANInvested
$341.12
Value
$345.04
PnL
+$3.92
Record
66%
1107-565 (1672)
TalophexInvested
$279
Value
$292.05
PnL
+$13.05
Record
91%
929-95 (1024)
occasionalAwarenessCTR<$100Invested
$71.43
Value
$93.06
PnL
+$21.64
Record
52%
284-262 (546)
NadmiCTR<$100Invested
$38.77
Value
$50.18
PnL
+$11.41
Record
47%
2036-2278 (4314)
Tenebrus7<$100Invested
$23.05
Value
$24.34
PnL
+$1.29
Record
73%
2953-1072 (4025)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
97.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.