Will Anthropic's public ticker be $ANT?

4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (57%) · Yes at 98¢ · $5K held · ends Jan 1, 2028

Yes98¢No2¢Ends Sat, Jan 1, 2028View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 57%

Total Value

$5.2K

Combined PnL

$553.97

Smart Money Entry

85¢ → 97.5¢

+15% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes98%

No3%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$5.1K

Total Shares5,274

Combined PnL+$628.47

No3 traders

Total Value$30.7

Total Shares1,228

Combined PnL-$74.5

Yes — 57%No — 43%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Late

219h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

3 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrNo 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 60% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KU kukubaja	Yesavg 95.8¢	$3.8K	$3.6K	+$32.46	84% 516-99 (615)
0X 0x00000000000000000000000000000000000000	Yesavg 99¢	$818.71	$803	-$12.4	42% 2258-3075 (5333)
Contentious-Dinnerdate	Yesavg 7.5¢	$49.9	$647.25	+$600.68	50% 415-417 (832)
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100	Yesavg 67.7¢	$17.81	$25.55	+$7.74	76% 11354-3525 (14879)
NadmiCTR<$100	Noavg 1.8¢	$17.32	$25	+$7.68	47% 2036-2278 (4314)
0X 0x2b670A311561DcAF741D8155451774D3Fa7fb814-1778467735876CTR<$100	Noavg 59.4¢	$73.13	$3.07	-$70.05	45% 112-138 (250)
TY TyshaCTR<$100	Noavg 14.1¢	$14.76	$2.62	-$12.13	72% 8306-3183 (11489)

kukubaja

Yes

Invested

$3,826.15

Value

$3.6K

PnL

+$32.46

Record

84%

516-99 (615)

0x00000000000000000000000000000000000000

Yes

Invested

$818.71

Value

$803

PnL

-$12.4

Record

42%

2258-3075 (5333)

Contentious-Dinnerdate

Yes

Invested

$49.9

Value

$647.25

PnL

+$600.68

Record

50%

415-417 (832)

Elias.Thornwell<$100

Yes

Invested

$17.81

Value

$25.55

PnL

+$7.74

Record

76%

11354-3525 (14879)

NadmiCTR<$100

Invested

$17.32

Value

$25

PnL

+$7.68

Record

47%

2036-2278 (4314)

0x2b670A311561DcAF741D8155451774D3Fa7fb814-1778467735876CTR<$100

Invested

$73.13

Value

$3.07

PnL

-$70.05

Record

45%

112-138 (250)

TyshaCTR<$100

Invested

$14.76

Value

$2.62

PnL

-$12.13

Record

72%

8306-3183 (11489)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Late

219h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

3 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrNo 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 60% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.6%

97.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.46

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.