Consensus PnL $61K · win rate 88% (354–47, n=401) · hand-picked wallet · holds 13 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$61.4K
Record
354W / 47L
Win Rate
88.0%
of 401 settled
Batting Avg
51.9%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#270
Source
Hand-picked
Trades
27,545
Markets
693
Volume
$5.0M
Top consensus positions
13 in listed consensus markets · 12 of 13 on the consensus side (92%)- Will Anthropic's public ticker be $ANT?Yes $3.6K · now 98¢ · in at 96¢with the consensus (57% of 7)
- Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?Yes $1.9K · now 99¢ · in at 98¢with the consensus (94% of 47)
- Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by December 31, 2026?No $1.3K · now 94¢ · in at 71¢with the consensus (90% of 10)
- Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?No $1.1K · now 99¢ · in at 98¢with the consensus (83% of 48)
- Will the Republicans win the Massachusetts governor race in 2026?No $767 · now 98¢ · in at 98¢with the consensus (79% of 14)
- Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?Yes $617 · now 90¢ · in at 94¢with the consensus (67% of 42)
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2027?Yes $525 · now 53¢ · in at 63¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?No $377 · now 98¢ · in at 98¢with the consensus (88% of 17)
Specialties
406 settled consensus markets · held side won 93% at an average entry of 91¢- Crypto
+9 pts
side won 95% of 55 · avg entry 85¢
ROI +5%
- Tech
+3 pts
side won 95% of 55 · avg entry 91¢
ROI −7%
- Politics
+3 pts
side won 100% of 14 · avg entry 97¢
ROI +1%
Weakest: Soccer — held side won 99% of 67 at an average 99¢ entry (−1 pts against the price), ROI −1%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 5%(won 19% of 21)
- 30–50¢: 2%(won 38% of 8)
- 50–70¢: 3%(won 71% of 14)
- 70¢ and up: 89%(won 99% of 363)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.