Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $700B by December 31?
7 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 97¢ · $14K held · ends Jan 5, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 100%
$14.2K
$596.96
92.7¢ → 96.8¢
+4% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 97%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 7 top traders (100%)2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 88%
Freshness
Late
1461h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TH TheReturnOfDarthMaul | Noavg 92.5¢ | $10.5K | $10.2K | +$449.37 | 63% 353-204 (557) |
 elmcap2 | Noavg 93¢ | $2.5K | $2.4K | +$93.93 | 89% 1665-205 (1870) |
 DEGENKHAN | Noavg 93.7¢ | $641.59 | $660.38 | +$18.79 | 66% 1107-565 (1672) |
EL Elias.Thornwell | Noavg 93.2¢ | $545.96 | $566.99 | +$21.02 | 76% 11354-3525 (14879) |
TH thoodr | Noavg 93¢ | $345.67 | $359.6 | +$13.94 | 96% 631-24 (655) |
 Talophex<$100 | Noavg 97¢ | $58.19 | $58.05 | -$0.14 | 91% 929-95 (1024) |
 Tenebrus7<$100 | Noavg 95.4¢ | $3.09 | $3.13 | +$0.04 | 73% 2953-1072 (4025) |
Invested
$10,511.99
Value
$10.2K
PnL
+$449.37
Record
63%
353-204 (557)
elmcap2Invested
$2,504.61
Value
$2.4K
PnL
+$93.93
Record
89%
1665-205 (1870)
DEGENKHANInvested
$641.59
Value
$660.38
PnL
+$18.79
Record
66%
1107-565 (1672)
Invested
$545.96
Value
$566.99
PnL
+$21.02
Record
76%
11354-3525 (14879)
Invested
$345.67
Value
$359.6
PnL
+$13.94
Record
96%
631-24 (655)
Talophex<$100Invested
$58.19
Value
$58.05
PnL
-$0.14
Record
91%
929-95 (1024)
Tenebrus7<$100Invested
$3.09
Value
$3.13
PnL
+$0.04
Record
73%
2953-1072 (4025)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
96.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.