Will any AI model reach 1580 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?
6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (86%) · No at 55¢ · $4K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 86%
$3.7K
-$200.15
70.6¢ → 55¢
-22% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 55%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 69%
Freshness
Late
679h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
7 consensus flips
86% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BR BrownBeesCTR | Yesavg 34¢ | $1.3K | $1.7K | +$247.36 | 61% 67-43 (110) |
 Contentious-Dinnerdate | Noavg 69.2¢ | $1.1K | $905.19 | -$156.99 | 50% 415-417 (832) |
 The-Joker | Noavg 77.9¢ | $724.94 | $520.81 | -$194.83 | 68% 1507-701 (2208) |
NO nonkenny90 | Noavg 67.4¢ | $387.57 | $322 | -$45.44 | 89% 4653-547 (5200) |
0X 0x6bAB66c4BB24c96Ed14dccA0f0979B38a6830FE5-1760703674960 | Noavg 71¢ | $221.11 | $177.52 | -$43.6 | 63% 166-99 (265) |
 Parz1vaI<$100 | Noavg 51.3¢ | $83.85 | $91.57 | +$9.36 | 72% 3507-1334 (4841) |
ME melganis<$100 | Noavg 73¢ | $73 | $56 | -$16 | 75% 1597-541 (2138) |
Invested
$1,293.82
Value
$1.7K
PnL
+$247.36
Record
61%
67-43 (110)
Contentious-DinnerdateInvested
$1,062.18
Value
$905.19
PnL
-$156.99
Record
50%
415-417 (832)
The-JokerInvested
$724.94
Value
$520.81
PnL
-$194.83
Record
68%
1507-701 (2208)
Invested
$387.57
Value
$322
PnL
-$45.44
Record
89%
4653-547 (5200)
Invested
$221.11
Value
$177.52
PnL
-$43.6
Record
63%
166-99 (265)
Parz1vaI<$100Invested
$83.85
Value
$91.57
PnL
+$9.36
Record
72%
3507-1334 (4841)
Invested
$73
Value
$56
PnL
-$16
Record
75%
1597-541 (2138)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
55.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.