Will any Uranium Enrichment % Cap (1+ Year) be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?
3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (43%) · No at 87¢ · $17K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 43%
$17.0K
-$333.15
82.6¢ → 87¢
+5% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 87%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Late
1951h old
Flip Quality
Watch
2 consensus flips
43% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO hopedieslast | Noavg 84¢ | $7.6K | $7.9K | +$269.8 | 59% 118-81 (199) |
 ArmageddonRewardsBilly | Noavg 80.9¢ | $6.6K | $6.5K | -$79.48 | 56% 15372-11923 (27295) |
 Valen9CTR | Yesavg 13¢ | $1.3K | $1.3K | +$0 | 60% 407-274 (681) |
 betwickCTR | Yesavg 17.3¢ | $1.6K | $1.2K | -$394.59 | 55% 353-292 (645) |
 tetraseCTR | Yesavg 33¢ | $214.8 | $84.62 | -$130.18 | 61% 839-544 (1383) |
 Debosnys<$100 | Noavg 85¢ | $46.76 | $47.86 | +$1.1 | 89% 1868-225 (2093) |
 PaddyAlphaCTR<$100 | Yesavg 12.9¢ | $36.29 | $36.48 | +$0.19 | 59% 986-684 (1670) |
Invested
$7,597.24
Value
$7.9K
PnL
+$269.8
Record
59%
118-81 (199)
ArmageddonRewardsBillyInvested
$6,576.32
Value
$6.5K
PnL
-$79.48
Record
56%
15372-11923 (27295)
Valen9CTRInvested
$1,284.21
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$0
Record
60%
407-274 (681)
betwickCTRInvested
$1,578.65
Value
$1.2K
PnL
-$394.59
Record
55%
353-292 (645)
tetraseCTRInvested
$214.8
Value
$84.62
PnL
-$130.18
Record
61%
839-544 (1383)
Debosnys<$100Invested
$46.76
Value
$47.86
PnL
+$1.1
Record
89%
1868-225 (2093)
PaddyAlphaCTR<$100Invested
$36.29
Value
$36.48
PnL
+$0.19
Record
59%
986-684 (1670)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
87.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.