Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 7 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
7 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $250K held · ends Nov 8, 2028
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
7
Yes 100%
$250.1K
-$123.46
46.7¢ → 0.1¢
-100% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 7 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Late
4877h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
189 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GA GAMBLINGISCANCER69CTR | Yesavg 50¢ | $250.0K | $250.0K | +$0 | 67% 41-20 (61) |
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR<$100 | Yes | $26.69 | $26.69 | -$56.81 | 72% 6833-2629 (9462) |
 DonkovCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.3¢ | $19.99 | $25 | +$5.01 | 71% 969-397 (1366) |
HE HerrieDavisCTR<$100 | Yes | $17.58 | $17.58 | -$37.36 | 36% 2086-3722 (5808) |
0X 0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758CTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.8¢ | $50.55 | $16.2 | -$34.43 | 47% 85-95 (180) |
FA failstoberCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.6¢ | $12.97 | $2.78 | +$2.78 | 26% 351-985 (1336) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.8¢ | $3.91 | $1.25 | -$2.66 | 56% 14257-11059 (25316) |
Invested
$250,000
Value
$250.0K
PnL
+$0
Record
67%
41-20 (61)
Invested
$26.69
Value
$26.69
PnL
-$56.81
Record
72%
6833-2629 (9462)
DonkovCTR<$100Invested
$19.99
Value
$25
PnL
+$5.01
Record
71%
969-397 (1366)
Invested
$17.58
Value
$17.58
PnL
-$37.36
Record
36%
2086-3722 (5808)
Invested
$50.55
Value
$16.2
PnL
-$34.43
Record
47%
85-95 (180)
Invested
$12.97
Value
$2.78
PnL
+$2.78
Record
26%
351-985 (1336)
Invested
$3.91
Value
$1.25
PnL
-$2.66
Record
56%
14257-11059 (25316)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.