Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 7 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election?
7 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $96 held · ends Apr 19, 2027
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
7
Yes 100%
$96.09
-$628.13
0.7¢ → 0.1¢
-86% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 7 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Cooling
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 76%
Freshness
Late
4825h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
143 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 nicoco89CTR | Yesavg 0.7¢ | $301.35 | $41.31 | -$260.04 | 65% 1075-583 (1658) |
NY NyetRiskCTR<$100 | Yes | $30.79 | $30.79 | -$209.76 | 7% 14-187 (201) |
FL flawfenceCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.8¢ | $62.91 | $8.05 | -$54.86 | 46% 271-319 (590) |
0X 0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758CTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.8¢ | $39.34 | $5.04 | -$34.35 | 47% 83-94 (177) |
HE HerrieDavisCTR<$100 | Yes | $4.27 | $4.27 | -$35.22 | 36% 2085-3721 (5806) |
EL Elias.ThornwellCTR | Yesavg 0.6¢ | $125.89 | $3.85 | -$20.97 | 76% 11352-3524 (14876) |
BI BikesAreTheBikesCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.4¢ | $1.15 | $1.9 | -$12.92 | 39% 1780-2832 (4612) |
nicoco89CTRInvested
$301.35
Value
$41.31
PnL
-$260.04
Record
65%
1075-583 (1658)
Invested
$30.79
Value
$30.79
PnL
-$209.76
Record
7%
14-187 (201)
Invested
$62.91
Value
$8.05
PnL
-$54.86
Record
46%
271-319 (590)
Invested
$39.34
Value
$5.04
PnL
-$34.35
Record
47%
83-94 (177)
Invested
$4.27
Value
$4.27
PnL
-$35.22
Record
36%
2085-3721 (5806)
Invested
$125.89
Value
$3.85
PnL
-$20.97
Record
76%
11352-3524 (14876)
Invested
$1.15
Value
$1.9
PnL
-$12.92
Record
39%
1780-2832 (4612)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.