Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in November?

5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (71%) · Yes at 80¢ · $19K held · ends Dec 1

Yes80¢No20¢Ends Tue, Dec 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 71%

Total Value

$19.1K

Combined PnL

$300.4

Smart Money Entry

78.3¢ → 79.5¢

+2% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 80%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes80%

No21%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes5 traders

Total Value$19.1K

Total Shares23,970

Combined PnL+$251.38

No2 traders

Total Value$68.06

Total Shares358

Combined PnL+$49.02

Yes — 71%No — 29%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+11 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (7 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleYes 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpYes 75% · 4

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 71% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
justdance	Yesavg 78.7¢	$9.4K	$9.5K	+$89.97	52% 2726-2552 (5278)
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452	Yesavg 78¢	$5.8K	$5.9K	+$111.32	66% 2458-1291 (3749)
X6 x6916Cc00AA1c3e75ECf4081DF7caE7D2f3592fd4	Yesavg 78¢	$3.2K	$3.2K	+$20.43	54% 785-659 (1444)
TO Tokor	Yesavg 73¢	$341.52	$371.93	+$30.41	62% 795-490 (1285)
SH Sharky6999CTR<$100	Noavg 4¢	$10.79	$58.56	+$47.77	98% 6914-167 (7081)
RI Rin2x<$100	Yesavg 82¢	$41	$39	-$0.75	86% 2156-340 (2496)
PippiTraderCTR<$100	Noavg 19.8¢	$8.25	$9.5	+$1.25	61% 313-200 (513)

justdance

Yes

Invested

$9,432

Value

$9.5K

PnL

+$89.97

Record

52%

2726-2552 (5278)

0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452

Yes

Invested

$5,788.66

Value

$5.9K

PnL

+$111.32

Record

66%

2458-1291 (3749)

x6916Cc00AA1c3e75ECf4081DF7caE7D2f3592fd4

Yes

Invested

$3,187.08

Value

$3.2K

PnL

+$20.43

Record

54%

785-659 (1444)

Tokor

Yes

Invested

$341.52

Value

$371.93

PnL

+$30.41

Record

62%

795-490 (1285)

Sharky6999CTR<$100

Invested

$10.79

Value

$58.56

PnL

+$47.77

Record

98%

6914-167 (7081)

Rin2x<$100

Yes

Invested

$41

Value

$39

PnL

-$0.75

Record

86%

2156-340 (2496)

PippiTraderCTR<$100

Invested

$8.25

Value

$9.5

PnL

+$1.25

Record

61%

313-200 (513)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 80%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+11 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (7 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleYes 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpYes 75% · 4

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 71% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance81.6%

79.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$22.55

Max Loss

-$100.00

122.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.