Consensus PnL $35K · win rate 90% (2100–236, n=2336) · was PM monthly #806 · holds 20 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$34.8K
Record
2100W / 236L
Win Rate
90.0%
of 2336 settled
Batting Avg
94.7%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#233
Source
PM monthly #806
Trades
455
Markets
2,676
Volume
$3.3M
Top consensus positions
20 in listed consensus markets · 16 of 20 on the consensus side (80%)- Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026?No $5.7K · now 95¢ · in at 92¢with the consensus (80% of 25)
- Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?No $5.3K · now 90¢ · in at 81¢with the consensus (65% of 37)
- Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 by December 31, 2026?No $1.6K · now 85¢ · in at 85¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?No $880 · now 88¢ · in at 88¢with the consensus (83% of 23)
- Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on November 1?Yes $324 · now 100¢ · in at 99¢with the consensus (83% of 12)
- Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 October 26-November 1?No $249 · now 100¢ · in at 99¢with the consensus (80% of 10)
- Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on November 1?No $247 · now 100¢ · in at 99¢with the consensus (82% of 11)
- Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 October 26-November 1?No $198 · now 99¢ · in at 98¢with the consensus (100% of 8)
Specialties
2,116 settled consensus markets · held side won 92% at an average entry of 92¢- Politics
+7 pts
side won 100% of 38 · avg entry 93¢
ROI +2%
- F1
+4 pts
side won 76% of 74 · avg entry 71¢
ROI +4%
- Entertainment
+9 pts
side won 96% of 26 · avg entry 88¢
ROI +9%
Weakest: Geopolitics — held side won 90% of 67 at an average 93¢ entry (−4 pts against the price), ROI −1%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 1%(won 13% of 30)
- 30–50¢: 2%(won 36% of 33)
- 50–70¢: 3%(won 50% of 54)
- 70¢ and up: 94%(won 96% of 1999)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.