Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026?

2 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (29%) · No at 100¢ · $364 held · ends Nov 4

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 29%

Total Value

$364.07

Combined PnL

-$406.21

Smart Money Entry

96.5¢ → 100¢

+4% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 7 top traders (29%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$353.94

Total Shares354

Combined PnL+$12.03

Yes5 traders

Total Value$10.13

Total Shares20,263

Combined PnL-$418.24

No — 29%Yes — 71%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

4874h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

26 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

29% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on No) and the top 1000 (5 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleYes 100% · 2

Diverging

sharpYes 67% · 3

Diverging

ctrYes 80% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 80% · 5

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BT BTCGambler247	Noavg 96.5¢	$337.88	$349.81	+$11.92	47% 217-240 (457)
DR dromedaryyCTR	Yesavg 2.1¢	$336.35	$8	-$328.35	35% 35-64 (99)
LE LetTheGoodTimesRoll<$100	Noavg 95.8¢	$4.03	$4.13	+$0.1	45% 3592-4351 (7943)
HO HourglassCTR<$100	Yes	$1.49	$1.49	-$64.74	77% 8889-2658 (11547)
EL Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.6¢	$8.44	$0.33	-$17.96	76% 11352-3524 (14876)
12 123987456CTR<$100	Yesavg 2.2¢	$7.5	$0.17	-$7.33	45% 1905-2348 (4253)
WO wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.5¢	$0	$0.14	+$0.14	33% 6263-12990 (19253)

BTCGambler247

Invested

$337.88

Value

$349.81

PnL

+$11.92

Record

47%

217-240 (457)

dromedaryyCTR

Yes

Invested

$336.35

Value

PnL

-$328.35

Record

35%

35-64 (99)

LetTheGoodTimesRoll<$100

Invested

$4.03

Value

$4.13

PnL

+$0.1

Record

45%

3592-4351 (7943)

HourglassCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.49

Value

$1.49

PnL

-$64.74

Record

77%

8889-2658 (11547)

Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.44

Value

$0.33

PnL

-$17.96

Record

76%

11352-3524 (14876)

123987456CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.5

Value

$0.17

PnL

-$7.33

Record

45%

1905-2348 (4253)

wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$0.14

PnL

+$0.14

Record

33%

6263-12990 (19253)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 7 top traders (29%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

4874h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

26 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

29% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on No) and the top 1000 (5 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleYes 100% · 2

Diverging

sharpYes 67% · 3

Diverging

ctrYes 80% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 80% · 5

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.