Will Connor McDavid win the 2026-27 Hart Memorial Trophy?

3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (38%) · Yes at 75¢ · $4K held · ends Jul 1, 2027

Yes75¢No25¢Ends Thu, Jul 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 38%

Total Value

$3.8K

Combined PnL

$797.41

Smart Money Entry

40.3¢ → 75¢

+86% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 75%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 8 top traders (38%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes75%

No25%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$2.5K

Total Shares4,122

Combined PnL+$1.5K

No5 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares3,184

Combined PnL-$660.01

Yes — 38%No — 62%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-51 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

585h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

3 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

29% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 80% · 5

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Robbb	Yesavg 40.3¢	$1.0K	$2.4K	+$1.4K	77% 2132-646 (2778)
KnureKnumeCTR	Noavg 48.5¢	$1.6K	$1.2K	-$648.09	48% 410-450 (860)
WA WarriorHCTR<$100	Noavg 50.8¢	$55.37	$44.2	-$11.17	16% 1392-7374 (8766)
XT xtxpleasecallme	Yesavg 38.7¢	$203.53	$38.12	+$66.91	33% 20011-40834 (60845)
ME merodCTR<$100	Noavg 55.1¢	$18.28	$6.82	+$0.01	30% 3461-8203 (11664)
LucerysCTR<$100	Noavg 40.7¢	$23.82	$6.52	-$2.52	45% 18006-22281 (40287)
RO rocky42019<$100	Yesavg 43.4¢	$1.35	$2.7	+$1.35	42% 1963-2686 (4649)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Noavg 55.2¢	$13.46	$2.23	+$1.76	58% 23579-16943 (40522)

Robbb

Yes

Invested

$1,047.19

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$1.4K

Record

77%

2132-646 (2778)

KnureKnumeCTR

Invested

$1,586.28

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$648.09

Record

48%

410-450 (860)

WarriorHCTR<$100

Invested

$55.37

Value

$44.2

PnL

-$11.17

Record

16%

1392-7374 (8766)

xtxpleasecallme

Yes

Invested

$203.53

Value

$38.12

PnL

+$66.91

Record

33%

20011-40834 (60845)

merodCTR<$100

Invested

$18.28

Value

$6.82

PnL

+$0.01

Record

30%

3461-8203 (11664)

LucerysCTR<$100

Invested

$23.82

Value

$6.52

PnL

-$2.52

Record

45%

18006-22281 (40287)

rocky42019<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.35

Value

$2.7

PnL

+$1.35

Record

42%

1963-2686 (4649)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Invested

$13.46

Value

$2.23

PnL

+$1.76

Record

58%

23579-16943 (40522)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 75%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 8 top traders (38%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-51 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

585h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

3 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

29% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 80% · 5

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance76.9%

75.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$30.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

130.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.