Will Cuffem lose the most weight in Nozempic 2?

4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 71¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 13

Yes30¢No70¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 67%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.8K

Combined PnL

$411.08

Smart Money Entry

39.1¢ → 70.5¢

+80% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 71%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes30%

No71%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares1,520

Combined PnL+$428.32

Yes2 traders

Total Value$40.56

Total Shares71

Combined PnL-$17.24

No — 67%Yes — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+17 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

11h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 67% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TA taemaxx	Noavg 39.6¢	$493.61	$856.93	+$363.32	— 2-1 (3)
RelaccsedARB<$100	Yesavg 59¢	$734.58	$566.87	-$167.71	— 4-1 (5)
└ No leg	Noavg 60.8¢	$340.36	$386.51	+$46.15
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 59¢	$394.22	$180.36	-$213.86
XT xtxpleasecallme	Noavg 33.5¢	$123.72	$192.54	+$68.83	41% 3007-4413 (7420)
HoshinoAIARB<$100	Yesavg 50¢	$151.71	$113.25	-$38.46	— 10-8 (18)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 50¢	$113.14	$61.06	-$52.08
└ No leg	Noavg 51¢	$38.57	$52.18	+$13.61
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100	Yesavg 62¢	$31	$29.76	-$1.24	— 1-10 (11)
WA WarriorH<$100	Noavg 55¢	$55.2	$20	-$4.7	— 0-12 (12)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 64.6¢	$12.92	$13.8	+$0.88	28% 2449-6153 (8602)
0X 0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73CTR<$100	Yesavg 67¢	$26.8	$10.8	-$16	23% 80-263 (343)

taemaxx

Invested

$493.61

Value

$856.93

PnL

+$363.32

Record

—

2-1 (3)

RelaccsedARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$734.58

Value

$566.87

PnL

-$167.71

Record

—

4-1 (5)

Both legs:

No$340.3660.8¢+$46.15

Yes$394.2259¢-$213.86

xtxpleasecallme

Invested

$123.72

Value

$192.54

PnL

+$68.83

Record

41%

3007-4413 (7420)

HoshinoAIARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$151.71

Value

$113.25

PnL

-$38.46

Record

—

10-8 (18)

Both legs:

Yes$113.1450¢-$52.08

No$38.5751¢+$13.61

0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$31

Value

$29.76

PnL

-$1.24

Record

—

1-10 (11)

WarriorH<$100

Invested

$55.2

Value

$20

PnL

-$4.7

Record

—

0-12 (12)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$12.92

Value

$13.8

PnL

+$0.88

Record

28%

2449-6153 (8602)

0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$26.8

Value

$10.8

PnL

-$16

Record

23%

80-263 (343)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 71%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+17 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

11h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 67% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance72.5%

70.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$37.90

Max Loss

-$100.00

137.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.