Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (97%). 7 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Denver Nuggets win the 2027 NBA Finals?
7 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 2.5¢ · $6K held · ends Jul 1, 2027
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
7
Yes 100%
$5.9K
$-1.7K
3.3¢ → 2.5¢
-22% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 3%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 7 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 97%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 78%
Freshness
Late
726h old
Flip Quality
Watch
2 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BT BTCGambler247CTR | Yesavg 3.4¢ | $4.4K | $3.3K | $-1.1K | 47% 217-240 (457) |
LE leegunnerCTR | Yesavg 3.1¢ | $1.6K | $1.3K | -$276.92 | 41% 1281-1829 (3110) |
 NooseracCTR | Yesavg 3.2¢ | $931.07 | $750.69 | -$180.37 | 52% 5832-5416 (11248) |
 TimeTravelerCTR | Yesavg 3¢ | $425.46 | $361.35 | -$63.37 | 41% 1986-2802 (4788) |
11 11122CTR | Yesavg 4¢ | $141.25 | $89.25 | -$52 | 44% 1401-1817 (3218) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yes | $44.69 | $44.69 | -$3.99 | 56% 14240-11046 (25286) |
 UbuntuTradingCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.3¢ | $23.2 | $20.4 | -$2.8 | 57% 3069-2356 (5425) |
Invested
$4,383.26
Value
$3.3K
PnL
$-1.1K
Record
47%
217-240 (457)
Invested
$1,574.45
Value
$1.3K
PnL
-$276.92
Record
41%
1281-1829 (3110)
NooseracCTRInvested
$931.07
Value
$750.69
PnL
-$180.37
Record
52%
5832-5416 (11248)
TimeTravelerCTRInvested
$425.46
Value
$361.35
PnL
-$63.37
Record
41%
1986-2802 (4788)
Invested
$141.25
Value
$89.25
PnL
-$52
Record
44%
1401-1817 (3218)
Invested
$44.69
Value
$44.69
PnL
-$3.99
Record
56%
14240-11046 (25286)
UbuntuTradingCTR<$100Invested
$23.2
Value
$20.4
PnL
-$2.8
Record
57%
3069-2356 (5425)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
2.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.