Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (99%). 6 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Elisabeth Thand Ringqvist be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?

6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (86%) · Yes at 1.5¢ · $1K held · ended Sep 14

Yes1¢No99¢Ended Mon, Sep 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 86%

Total Value

$1.2K

Combined PnL

$-1.1K

Smart Money Entry

2.5¢ → 1.5¢

-42% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 7 top traders (86%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No1 trader

Total Value$533.8

Total Shares538

Combined PnL-$3.56

Yes6 traders

Total Value$672.81

Total Shares53,043

Combined PnL$-1.1K

No — 14%Yes — 86%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 79%

Freshness

Late

4848h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

37 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

86% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 86% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
EL Elias.Thornwell	Noavg 99.3¢	$572.19	$533.8	-$3.56	77% 11697-3588 (15285)
DO donthackmeCTR	Yesavg 2.8¢	$778.28	$392.28	-$386	73% 11100-4100 (15200)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR	Yesavg 2.8¢	$349.07	$141.94	-$619	42% 1899-2623 (4522)
0xa7517ed74c6b07843946e0e69cad10a9fa94e05CTR	Yesavg 1.2¢	$44.99	$70	+$25.01	37% 194-334 (528)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.8¢	$87.26	$45.55	-$41.71	56% 18390-14714 (33104)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.3¢	$25.57	$16.24	-$9.34	35% 16972-31413 (48385)
themagicofcinemaCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.6¢	$28.2	$6.81	-$21.39	66% 436-220 (656)

Elias.Thornwell

Invested

$572.19

Value

$533.8

PnL

-$3.56

Record

77%

11697-3588 (15285)

donthackmeCTR

Yes

Invested

$778.28

Value

$392.28

PnL

-$386

Record

73%

11100-4100 (15200)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR

Yes

Invested

$349.07

Value

$141.94

PnL

-$619

Record

42%

1899-2623 (4522)

0xa7517ed74c6b07843946e0e69cad10a9fa94e05CTR

Yes

Invested

$44.99

Value

$70

PnL

+$25.01

Record

37%

194-334 (528)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$87.26

Value

$45.55

PnL

-$41.71

Record

56%

18390-14714 (33104)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$25.57

Value

$16.24

PnL

-$9.34

Record

35%

16972-31413 (48385)

themagicofcinemaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$28.2

Value

$6.81

PnL

-$21.39

Record

66%

436-220 (656)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 7 top traders (86%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 79%

Freshness

Late

4848h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

37 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

86% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 86% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance2.5%

1.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3828.35

Max Loss

-$100.00

3928.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.