Consensus PnL $58K · win rate 39% (146–225, n=371) · PM monthly #300 · holds 49 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$57.6K
Record
146W / 225L
Win Rate
39.0%
of 371 settled
Batting Avg
37.9%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#2114
Source
PM monthly #300
Trades
1,823
Markets
617
Volume
$7.2M
Top consensus positions
49 in listed consensus markets · 23 of 49 on the consensus side (47%)- Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?No $28K · now 70¢ · in at 62¢with the consensus (76% of 92)
- Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats?Yes $28K · now 25¢ · in at 23¢with the consensus (67% of 21)
- Will the Democrats win the Nevada governor race in 2026?Yes $9.7K · now 79¢ · in at 78¢with the consensus (69% of 30)
- Will the Democrats win the Florida governor race in 2026?Yes $9.4K · now 35¢ · in at 30¢with the consensus (71% of 28)
- Will the Republicans win the Ohio governor race in 2026?No $8.0K · now 81¢ · in at 82¢with the consensus (62% of 37)
- Will the Democrats win the Ohio governor race in 2026?Yes $8.0K · now 81¢ · in at 82¢with the consensus (69% of 39)
- Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?Yes $7.7K · now 49¢ · in at 43¢with the consensus (63% of 27)
- Will the Democrats win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?Yes $4.6K · now 53¢ · in at 42¢against the consensus (No)
Specialties
230 settled consensus markets · held side won 75% at an average entry of 64¢- Esports
+41 pts
side won 100% of 15 · avg entry 59¢
ROI +27%
- Elections
+19 pts
side won 91% of 34 · avg entry 72¢
ROI +9%
- Geopolitics
+4 pts
side won 68% of 105 · avg entry 63¢
ROI 0%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 23%(won 17% of 52)
- 30–50¢: 10%(won 67% of 24)
- 50–70¢: 17%(won 82% of 39)
- 70¢ and up: 50%(won 100% of 115)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.