Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 7 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Everton win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?
7 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $290 held · ends May 30, 2027
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
7
Yes 100%
$289.91
$-10.9K
0.3¢ → 0.1¢
-80% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 7 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Building
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 83%
Freshness
Late
689h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BR BreakTheBankCTR | Yes | $171.13 | $171.13 | $-10.4K | 43% 561-738 (1299) |
LE leegunnerCTR | Yesavg 0.2¢ | $266.55 | $69.26 | -$197.28 | 41% 1281-1829 (3110) |
 TimeTravelerCTR | Yesavg 0.2¢ | $188 | $47 | -$140.92 | 41% 1986-2802 (4788) |
0X 0xf475402430f3dc9611abeea737fe69dd02f48486CTR | Yesavg 3.3¢ | $115.01 | $1.76 | -$113.25 | 11% 20-166 (186) |
 UbuntuTradingCTR<$100 | Yes | $0.47 | $0.47 | -$26.38 | 57% 3069-2357 (5426) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 4.2¢ | $17.62 | $0.21 | -$17.41 | 56% 14257-11059 (25316) |
DR DreamwireCTR<$100 | Yesavg 4.3¢ | $5.71 | $0.07 | -$5.64 | 83% 2683-538 (3221) |
Invested
$171.13
Value
$171.13
PnL
$-10.4K
Record
43%
561-738 (1299)
Invested
$266.55
Value
$69.26
PnL
-$197.28
Record
41%
1281-1829 (3110)
TimeTravelerCTRInvested
$188
Value
$47
PnL
-$140.92
Record
41%
1986-2802 (4788)
Invested
$115.01
Value
$1.76
PnL
-$113.25
Record
11%
20-166 (186)
UbuntuTradingCTR<$100Invested
$0.47
Value
$0.47
PnL
-$26.38
Record
57%
3069-2357 (5426)
Invested
$17.62
Value
$0.21
PnL
-$17.41
Record
56%
14257-11059 (25316)
Invested
$5.71
Value
$0.07
PnL
-$5.64
Record
83%
2683-538 (3221)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.