Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (85%). 4 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
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4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (57%) · Yes at 16¢ · $8K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
7
Yes 57%
$8.1K
$-5.0K
42.4¢ → 15.5¢
-63% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 16%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 7 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors No 85%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 98%
Freshness
Late
4729h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
57% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 SwissMissCTR | Yesavg 42.4¢ | $10.4K | $3.9K | $-6.5K | 66% 476-245 (721) |
PE peepeepooppoop | Noavg 57.3¢ | $717.31 | $1.4K | +$583.16 | 52% 2050-1868 (3918) |
LI lineth | Noavg 45.9¢ | $204.41 | $1.3K | +$523.06 | 41% 245-350 (595) |
SI singularityman | Noavg 41.8¢ | $20.9 | $1.3K | +$589.55 | 42% 138-193 (331) |
 StarMasterCTR | Yesavg 46.6¢ | $182.23 | $61.86 | -$120.37 | 53% 1858-1640 (3498) |
RO rocky42019CTR | Yesavg 48.3¢ | $92.5 | $44.87 | -$47.62 | 42% 1726-2358 (4084) |
 NadmiCTR<$100 | Yesavg 7¢ | $7.43 | $16.46 | +$9.03 | 47% 2036-2280 (4316) |
SwissMissCTRInvested
$10,433.04
Value
$3.9K
PnL
$-6.5K
Record
66%
476-245 (721)
Invested
$717.31
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$583.16
Record
52%
2050-1868 (3918)
Invested
$204.41
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$523.06
Record
41%
245-350 (595)
Invested
$20.9
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$589.55
Record
42%
138-193 (331)
StarMasterCTRInvested
$182.23
Value
$61.86
PnL
-$120.37
Record
53%
1858-1640 (3498)
Invested
$92.5
Value
$44.87
PnL
-$47.62
Record
42%
1726-2358 (4084)
NadmiCTR<$100Invested
$7.43
Value
$16.46
PnL
+$9.03
Record
47%
2036-2280 (4316)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
15.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.