Consensus PnL -$406K · win rate 61% (432–277, n=709) · was PM monthly #193 · holds 11 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$-406.3K
Record
432W / 277L
Win Rate
61.0%
of 709 settled
Batting Avg
67.8%
Status
Unprofitable
Win-rate rank
#1116
Source
PM monthly #193
Trades
38,965
Markets
935
Volume
$54.2M
Top consensus positions
11 in listed consensus markets · 8 of 11 on the consensus side (73%)- Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?No $62K · now 97¢ · in at 80¢with the consensus (68% of 34)
- Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?No $53K · now 96¢ · in at 54¢with the consensus (88% of 80)
- Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?No $29K · now 97¢ · in at 81¢with the consensus (90% of 41)
- Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?No $15K · now 92¢ · in at 60¢with the consensus (52% of 31)
- Nothing Ever Happens: 2026Yes $5.3K · now 82¢ · in at 48¢with the consensus (77% of 22)
- Will FISA Section 702 reauthorization become law this year?Yes $3.9K · now 16¢ · in at 42¢with the consensus (57% of 7)
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Yes $3.8K · now 17¢ · in at 52¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes $2.5K · now 12¢ · in at 15¢with the consensus (91% of 32)
Specialties
872 settled consensus markets · held side won 63% at an average entry of 60¢- MMA
+8 pts
side won 55% of 179 · avg entry 47¢
ROI +2%
- Elections
+2 pts
side won 82% of 61 · avg entry 80¢
ROI −2%
- Politics
+6 pts
side won 83% of 36 · avg entry 77¢
ROI +6%
Weakest: Geopolitics — held side won 77% of 202 at an average 77¢ entry (−1 pts against the price), ROI −8%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 12%(won 18% of 106)
- 30–50¢: 24%(won 45% of 208)
- 50–70¢: 29%(won 62% of 252)
- 70¢ and up: 35%(won 91% of 306)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.