Will Frank Chikane be the next mayor of Johannesburg?
3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (43%) · No at 94¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 17
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 43%
$1.7K
$188.8
77¢ → 93.9¢
+22% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 94%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+10 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Late
726h old
Flip Quality
Clean
1 consensus flip
43% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 archaic | Noavg 86.9¢ | $978.28 | $1.1K | +$74.22 | 85% 1906-339 (2245) |
LI lineth | Noavg 60.4¢ | $399.13 | $617.7 | +$218.57 | 41% 245-350 (595) |
CO cowcatCTR | Yesavg 28.6¢ | $105.6 | $24.17 | -$81.8 | 53% 1560-1362 (2922) |
TH TheImpasseCTR<$100 | Yesavg 17.1¢ | $28.88 | $11.07 | -$17.81 | 22% 145-528 (673) |
 GohstCTR<$100 | Yesavg 21¢ | $9.48 | $2.96 | -$6.52 | 49% 738-770 (1508) |
 probabilityCTR<$100 | Yesavg 4.6¢ | $0.7 | $1.98 | +$1.28 | 42% 1368-1924 (3292) |
KO korda77<$100 | Noavg 48.7¢ | $0.95 | $1.82 | +$0.87 | 52% 5046-4713 (9759) |
archaicInvested
$978.28
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$74.22
Record
85%
1906-339 (2245)
Invested
$399.13
Value
$617.7
PnL
+$218.57
Record
41%
245-350 (595)
Invested
$105.6
Value
$24.17
PnL
-$81.8
Record
53%
1560-1362 (2922)
Invested
$28.88
Value
$11.07
PnL
-$17.81
Record
22%
145-528 (673)
GohstCTR<$100Invested
$9.48
Value
$2.96
PnL
-$6.52
Record
49%
738-770 (1508)
probabilityCTR<$100Invested
$0.7
Value
$1.98
PnL
+$1.28
Record
42%
1368-1924 (3292)
Invested
$0.95
Value
$1.82
PnL
+$0.87
Record
52%
5046-4713 (9759)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
93.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.