Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
2 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (29%) · No at 100¢ · $710 held · ends Dec 31
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 29%
$709.54
$2.14
99.9¢ → 99.9¢
+0% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 7 top traders (29%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
-4 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Late
4875h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
135 consensus flips
29% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EL Elias.Thornwell | Noavg 99.9¢ | $694.43 | $694.52 | +$0.1 | 76% 11354-3525 (14879) |
AN anoin123CTR<$100 | Yes | $6.21 | $6.21 | +$6.21 | 47% 476-535 (1011) |
 flow-trader-at-optiverCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.2¢ | $0 | $4.04 | +$4.04 | 39% 965-1508 (2473) |
RA rated<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $3.04 | $3.04 | -$0 | 29% 2865-6952 (9817) |
 ImbaferCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.5¢ | $8.95 | $0.91 | -$8.04 | 56% 238-189 (427) |
WO wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.2¢ | $0 | $0.73 | +$0.73 | 33% 6263-12990 (19253) |
NY NyetRiskCTR<$100 | Yes | $0.08 | $0.08 | -$0.9 | 7% 14-187 (201) |
Invested
$694.43
Value
$694.52
PnL
+$0.1
Record
76%
11354-3525 (14879)
Invested
$6.21
Value
$6.21
PnL
+$6.21
Record
47%
476-535 (1011)
flow-trader-at-optiverCTR<$100Invested
$0
Value
$4.04
PnL
+$4.04
Record
39%
965-1508 (2473)
Invested
$3.04
Value
$3.04
PnL
-$0
Record
29%
2865-6952 (9817)
ImbaferCTR<$100Invested
$8.95
Value
$0.91
PnL
-$8.04
Record
56%
238-189 (427)
Invested
$0
Value
$0.73
PnL
+$0.73
Record
33%
6263-12990 (19253)
Invested
$0.08
Value
$0.08
PnL
-$0.9
Record
7%
14-187 (201)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.