Will Gavin Newsom announce a Presidential run before 2027?
3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (43%) · No at 87¢ · $6K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 43%
$6.0K
$382.73
82.7¢ → 87¢
+5% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 87%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 87%
Freshness
Late
4875h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
43% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SI simpleman | Noavg 83.2¢ | $1.9K | $3.5K | +$281.92 | 47% 456-520 (976) |
 bernardbulletin | Noavg 87.8¢ | $1.1K | $1.0K | -$10.04 | 69% 987-450 (1437) |
HO HotDogs | Noavg 72.4¢ | $579.42 | $677.58 | +$98.15 | 94% 442-28 (470) |
 ImJustKenCTR | Yesavg 12.8¢ | $543.26 | $551.23 | +$7.97 | 53% 3037-2716 (5753) |
 CarCTR | Yesavg 12.5¢ | $237 | $247 | +$10.02 | 67% 4165-2026 (6191) |
 StupidMonkeyyyCTR<$100 | Yesavg 13¢ | $22.17 | $22.17 | +$0 | 50% 147-145 (292) |
FA failstoberCTR<$100 | Yesavg 18¢ | $19.08 | $13.78 | -$5.3 | 26% 351-985 (1336) |
Invested
$1,864.5
Value
$3.5K
PnL
+$281.92
Record
47%
456-520 (976)
bernardbulletinInvested
$1,059.73
Value
$1.0K
PnL
-$10.04
Record
69%
987-450 (1437)
Invested
$579.42
Value
$677.58
PnL
+$98.15
Record
94%
442-28 (470)
ImJustKenCTRInvested
$543.26
Value
$551.23
PnL
+$7.97
Record
53%
3037-2716 (5753)
CarCTRInvested
$237
Value
$247
PnL
+$10.02
Record
67%
4165-2026 (6191)
StupidMonkeyyyCTR<$100Invested
$22.17
Value
$22.17
PnL
+$0
Record
50%
147-145 (292)
Invested
$19.08
Value
$13.78
PnL
-$5.3
Record
26%
351-985 (1336)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
87.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.