Will Gen.G Make the Worlds 2026 Grand Final?

4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (57%) · Yes at 86¢ · $31K held · ends Nov 29

Yes86¢No14¢Ends Sun, Nov 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 57%

Total Value

$31.1K

Combined PnL

$6.1K

Smart Money Entry

63.3¢ → 85.5¢

+35% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 86%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes86%

No14%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$29.6K

Total Shares35,669

Combined PnL+$6.8K

No3 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares8,605

Combined PnL-$661.93

Yes — 57%No — 43%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-10 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 71%

Freshness

Late

356h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 71% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (7 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleYes 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 57% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x6918EA182D963b1Fb7888860b8a8b8bCfbA5782b-1771878010027	Yesavg 48.5¢	$7.3K	$12.4K	+$5.1K	57% 1128-842 (1970)
0X 0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816	Yesavg 75¢	$7.6K	$8.4K	+$457.31	50% 549-553 (1102)
vtcchampion52	Yesavg 80.8¢	$21.63	$6.4K	+$400.6	48% 1174-1259 (2433)
GO Gooooooollllllllll	Yesavg 52.2¢	$1.5K	$2.4K	+$839.28	50% 1305-1294 (2599)
AnjunCTR	Noavg 24.8¢	$1.5K	$1.2K	-$295.12	55% 5199-4283 (9482)
TA TAIWANNUMBERONECTR	Noavg 42.2¢	$759.07	$321.47	-$366.8	54% 1379-1191 (2570)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100	Noavg 17¢	$2.05	$2.05	+$0	26% 7407-21213 (28620)

0x6918EA182D963b1Fb7888860b8a8b8bCfbA5782b-1771878010027

Yes

Invested

$7,274.5

Value

$12.4K

PnL

+$5.1K

Record

57%

1128-842 (1970)

0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816

Yes

Invested

$7,622.5

Value

$8.4K

PnL

+$457.31

Record

50%

549-553 (1102)

vtcchampion52

Yes

Invested

$21.63

Value

$6.4K

PnL

+$400.6

Record

48%

1174-1259 (2433)

Gooooooollllllllll

Yes

Invested

$1,485.18

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$839.28

Record

50%

1305-1294 (2599)

AnjunCTR

Invested

$1,458.77

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$295.12

Record

55%

5199-4283 (9482)

TAIWANNUMBERONECTR

Invested

$759.07

Value

$321.47

PnL

-$366.8

Record

54%

1379-1191 (2570)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100

Invested

$2.05

Value

$2.05

PnL

+$0

Record

26%

7407-21213 (28620)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 86%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-10 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 71%

Freshness

Late

356h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 71% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (7 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleYes 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 57% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance87.1%

85.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$14.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

114.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.