Will Gold (GC) dip to (LOW) $3,000 by end of December?
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (71%) · No at 95¢ · $16K held · ends Dec 31
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 71%
$16.1K
$21.59
95.6¢ → 95.4¢
+0% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 95%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 86%
Freshness
Late
503h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AV Avamax | Noavg 95.8¢ | $10.3K | $10.3K | -$5.84 | 81% 421-101 (522) |
CH chriszyy3 | Noavg 95.8¢ | $3.3K | $3.3K | -$6.83 | 94% 242-16 (258) |
AM amis | Noavg 94¢ | $1.6K | $1.7K | +$32.83 | 88% 249-34 (283) |
ST stupid22 | Noavg 94.4¢ | $394.93 | $401.41 | +$5.44 | 94% 412-26 (438) |
DI Dimpled-FoalCTR | Yesavg 4¢ | $391.68 | $392.79 | -$3.73 | 54% 229-195 (424) |
 Talophex<$100 | Noavg 96.1¢ | $96.1 | $95.95 | -$0.25 | 91% 929-95 (1024) |
AL Albert 1953CTR<$100 | Yesavg 4.5¢ | $4.23 | $3.82 | -$0.03 | 50% 1093-1094 (2187) |
Invested
$10,295.93
Value
$10.3K
PnL
-$5.84
Record
81%
421-101 (522)
Invested
$3,273
Value
$3.3K
PnL
-$6.83
Record
94%
242-16 (258)
Invested
$1,629.89
Value
$1.7K
PnL
+$32.83
Record
88%
249-34 (283)
Invested
$394.93
Value
$401.41
PnL
+$5.44
Record
94%
412-26 (438)
Invested
$391.68
Value
$392.79
PnL
-$3.73
Record
54%
229-195 (424)
Talophex<$100Invested
$96.1
Value
$95.95
PnL
-$0.25
Record
91%
929-95 (1024)
Invested
$4.23
Value
$3.82
PnL
-$0.03
Record
50%
1093-1094 (2187)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
95.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Finance 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.