Will GPT Astra 6.1+ be released between November 2 and November 8, 2026?

2 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (25%) · Yes at 77¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 9

Yes77¢No23¢Ends Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 25%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.1K

Combined PnL

$168.68

Smart Money Entry

54.4¢ → 77.3¢

+42% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 77%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 8 top traders (25%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes77%

No23%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$575

Total Shares784

Combined PnL+$171.54

No6 traders

Total Value$100.55

Total Shares380

Combined PnL-$2.86

Yes — 25%No — 75%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+10 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

34h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

3 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrYes 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 50% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Contentious-Dinnerdate	Yesavg 52.8¢	$341.06	$513.94	+$172.88	49% 421-430 (851)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271ARB<$100	Noavg 77.1¢	$848.32	$413.34	-$434.98	28% 5971-15675 (21646)
└ No leg	Noavg 77.1¢	$746.98	$280.98	-$446.8
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 34.3¢	$63.79	$132.37	+$11.82
SU SulkingCrypto<$100	Yesavg 73.1¢	$62.4	$61.06	-$1.34	16% 247-1262 (1509)
LI lissartterCTR<$100	Noavg 35.2¢	$50.04	$41.24	-$8.8	42% 5357-7370 (12727)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Noavg 25.7¢	$18.26	$17.43	-$1.46	53% 7533-6661 (14194)
GO god83743894CTR<$100	Noavg 19.2¢	$14.42	$17.36	+$2.95	49% 9092-9585 (18677)
BI BiggggggggCTR<$100	Noavg 18.6¢	$13.16	$16.34	+$3.18	43% 2950-3838 (6788)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Noavg 21.3¢	$4.27	$4.63	+$0.36	60% 7188-4753 (11941)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Noavg 21.4¢	$2.63	$3.55	+$0.92	31% 1942-4361 (6303)

Contentious-Dinnerdate

Yes

Invested

$341.06

Value

$513.94

PnL

+$172.88

Record

49%

421-430 (851)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271ARB<$100

Invested

$848.32

Value

$413.34

PnL

-$434.98

Record

28%

5971-15675 (21646)

Both legs:

No$746.9877.1¢-$446.8

Yes$63.7934.3¢+$11.82

SulkingCrypto<$100

Yes

Invested

$62.4

Value

$61.06

PnL

-$1.34

Record

16%

247-1262 (1509)

lissartterCTR<$100

Invested

$50.04

Value

$41.24

PnL

-$8.8

Record

42%

5357-7370 (12727)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Invested

$18.26

Value

$17.43

PnL

-$1.46

Record

53%

7533-6661 (14194)

god83743894CTR<$100

Invested

$14.42

Value

$17.36

PnL

+$2.95

Record

49%

9092-9585 (18677)

BiggggggggCTR<$100

Invested

$13.16

Value

$16.34

PnL

+$3.18

Record

43%

2950-3838 (6788)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Invested

$4.27

Value

$4.63

PnL

+$0.36

Record

60%

7188-4753 (11941)

luciebotCTR<$100

Invested

$2.63

Value

$3.55

PnL

+$0.92

Record

31%

1942-4361 (6303)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 77%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 8 top traders (25%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+10 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

34h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

3 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrYes 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 50% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance79.0%

77.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$26.61

Max Loss

-$100.00

126.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.