Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (66%). 3 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will GPT Astra 6.1+ be released between November 2 and November 8, 2026?
3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (43%) · No at 34¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 9
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 43%
$1.7K
-$399.11
55¢ → 34.1¢
-38% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 34%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 7 top traders (43%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 66%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 95%
Freshness
Late
60h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
4 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR | Noavg 58.5¢ | $1.6K | $906.76 | -$645.38 | 27% 6708-18524 (25232) |
 Contentious-Dinnerdate | Yesavg 52.8¢ | $381.54 | $505.63 | +$133.84 | 49% 421-432 (853) |
 2B9S | Yesavg 6.5¢ | $7.53 | $109.53 | +$102 | 18% 4199-19783 (23982) |
 balthazarCTR<$100 | Noavg 16.6¢ | $27.95 | $49.71 | +$21.76 | 53% 28631-25560 (54191) |
LI lissartterCTR<$100 | Noavg 35.2¢ | $50.04 | $41.95 | -$9.08 | 42% 5384-7432 (12816) |
WA WarriorH<$100 | Yesavg 72.2¢ | $42.63 | $41.3 | -$1.34 | 17% 1065-5310 (6375) |
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468F<$100 | Yesavg 67.7¢ | $33.85 | $32.93 | -$0.93 | 25% 1630-4963 (6593) |
Invested
$1,552.44
Value
$906.76
PnL
-$645.38
Record
27%
6708-18524 (25232)
Contentious-DinnerdateInvested
$381.54
Value
$505.63
PnL
+$133.84
Record
49%
421-432 (853)
2B9SInvested
$7.53
Value
$109.53
PnL
+$102
Record
18%
4199-19783 (23982)
balthazarCTR<$100Invested
$27.95
Value
$49.71
PnL
+$21.76
Record
53%
28631-25560 (54191)
Invested
$50.04
Value
$41.95
PnL
-$9.08
Record
42%
5384-7432 (12816)
Invested
$42.63
Value
$41.3
PnL
-$1.34
Record
17%
1065-5310 (6375)
Invested
$33.85
Value
$32.93
PnL
-$0.93
Record
25%
1630-4963 (6593)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
34.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.