Will GTA 6 cost $100+?
6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (86%) · No at 99¢ · $23K held · ends Mar 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 86%
$22.7K
-$25.96
97.5¢ → 99.2¢
+2% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 63%
Freshness
Late
4474h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
86% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 63% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HA HAOI | Noavg 97.8¢ | $8.7K | $8.7K | +$119.88 | 100% 20-0 (20) |
QM QMG-CORE | Noavg 98.2¢ | $5.6K | $5.5K | +$53.63 | 77% 1421-420 (1841) |
HO HotDogs | Noavg 97.4¢ | $2.9K | $2.9K | +$24.1 | 94% 443-28 (471) |
0X 0x0f3433d8b7596000bf1046aa822308d93cf67684 | Noavg 98¢ | $3.1K | $2.9K | -$270.97 | 37% 500-843 (1343) |
 TBill1 | Noavg 94.5¢ | $2.6K | $2.7K | +$54.11 | 45% 154-188 (342) |
 LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.3¢ | $9.35 | $9.6 | -$7.63 | 21% 2284-8696 (10980) |
 ImJustKen<$100 | Noavg 89¢ | $8.1 | $9.03 | +$0.93 | 53% 3043-2720 (5763) |
Invested
$8,742.27
Value
$8.7K
PnL
+$119.88
Record
100%
20-0 (20)
Invested
$5,609.47
Value
$5.5K
PnL
+$53.63
Record
77%
1421-420 (1841)
Invested
$2,890.85
Value
$2.9K
PnL
+$24.1
Record
94%
443-28 (471)
Invested
$3,126.02
Value
$2.9K
PnL
-$270.97
Record
37%
500-843 (1343)
TBill1Invested
$2,642.44
Value
$2.7K
PnL
+$54.11
Record
45%
154-188 (342)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
$9.35
Value
$9.6
PnL
-$7.63
Record
21%
2284-8696 (10980)
ImJustKen<$100Invested
$8.1
Value
$9.03
PnL
+$0.93
Record
53%
3043-2720 (5763)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.