Consensus PnL -$17K · win rate 37% (518–877, n=1395) · PM monthly #820 · holds 29 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$-17.2K
Record
518W / 877L
Win Rate
37.0%
of 1395 settled
Batting Avg
39.7%
Status
Unprofitable
Win-rate rank
#2431
Source
PM monthly #820
Record (90 d)
150/329 · 46%
Trades
4,849
Markets
1,917
Volume
$10.7M
Top consensus positions
29 in listed consensus markets · 14 of 29 on the consensus side (48%)- Rolex Paris Masters: Lorenzo Musetti vs Hubert HurkaczLorenzo Musetti $7.4K · now 47¢ · in at 50¢against the consensus (Hubert Hurkacz)
- Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?No $5.3K · now 96¢ · in at 78¢with the consensus (67% of 34)
- Will ACF Fiorentina win on 2026-11-02?Yes $4.0K · now 41¢ · in at 42¢with the consensus (33% of 12)
- Will GTA 6 cost $100+?No $2.9K · now 99¢ · in at 92¢with the consensus (86% of 7)
- Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?No $905 · now 88¢ · in at 85¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?No $904 · now 82¢ · in at 83¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?No $811 · now 90¢ · in at 84¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?No $788 · now 87¢with the consensus (27% of 26)
Specialties
1,226 settled consensus markets · held side won 34% at an average entry of 35¢- NBA
+7 pts
side won 47% of 34 · avg entry 40¢
ROI +6%
- Tennis
+9 pts
side won 53% of 19 · avg entry 44¢
ROI +3%
Weakest: Soccer — held side won 34% of 945 at an average 35¢ entry (−1 pts against the price), ROI −1%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 51%(won 9% of 621)
- 30–50¢: 20%(won 41% of 244)
- 50–70¢: 17%(won 62% of 213)
- 70¢ and up: 12%(won 87% of 148)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.