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3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (43%) · No at 82¢ · $6K held · ends Jan 1, 2028

Yes18¢No82¢Ends Sat, Jan 1, 2028View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 43%

Total Value

$6.1K

Combined PnL

$209.48

Smart Money Entry

84¢ → 82¢

-2% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 82%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes18%

No82%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$4.8K

Total Shares5,911

Combined PnL-$105.02

Yes4 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares6,809

Combined PnL+$314.5

No — 43%Yes — 57%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-1 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Late

707h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (5 on No) and the top 1000 (4 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 50% · 4

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 60% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 75% · 4

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
ArmageddonRewardsBilly	Noavg 85¢	$2.6K	$2.5K	-$91.53	56% 15372-11923 (27295)
CO cocococococo	Noavg 83¢	$2.3K	$2.3K	-$13.89	52% 1665-1535 (3200)
CarCTR	Yesavg 12.4¢	$700	$900	+$200	67% 4165-2026 (6191)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR	Yesavg 11¢	$110	$180	+$70	53% 6690-5888 (12578)
2B9SCTR	Yesavg 12¢	$96	$144	+$44	18% 3833-17376 (21209)
tetrase<$100	Noavg 81¢	$32.4	$32.8	+$0.4	61% 839-544 (1383)
tomatosauce3CTR<$100	Yesavg 11¢	$1	$1.64	+$0.5	— 6-1 (7)

ArmageddonRewardsBilly

Invested

$2,628.51

Value

$2.5K

PnL

-$91.53

Record

56%

15372-11923 (27295)

cocococococo

Invested

$2,291.44

Value

$2.3K

PnL

-$13.89

Record

52%

1665-1535 (3200)

CarCTR

Yes

Invested

$700

Value

$900

PnL

+$200

Record

67%

4165-2026 (6191)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR

Yes

Invested

$110

Value

$180

PnL

+$70

Record

53%

6690-5888 (12578)

2B9SCTR

Yes

Invested

$96

Value

$144

PnL

+$44

Record

18%

3833-17376 (21209)

tetrase<$100

Invested

$32.4

Value

$32.8

PnL

+$0.4

Record

61%

839-544 (1383)

tomatosauce3CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$1.64

PnL

+$0.5

Record

—

6-1 (7)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 82%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-1 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Late

707h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (5 on No) and the top 1000 (4 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 50% · 4

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 60% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 75% · 4

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance83.7%

82.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$19.47

Max Loss

-$100.00

119.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.