Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by December 31
3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (43%) · No at 91¢ · $15K held · ends Dec 31
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 43%
$14.7K
$7.6K
34.2¢ → 91¢
+166% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 91%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Late
2121h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
43% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
M2 M2sx92kljs42 | Noavg 33.4¢ | $5.1K | $13.9K | +$8.8K | 73% 350-129 (479) |
 Marco-RubioCTR | Yesavg 34.3¢ | $1.6K | $405.81 | $-1.1K | 53% 489-440 (929) |
 Talophex | Noavg 83¢ | $207.5 | $227.5 | +$20 | 91% 929-95 (1024) |
 RememberAmalekCTR | Yesavg 17.4¢ | $208.94 | $108 | -$100.94 | 56% 973-770 (1743) |
 CarCTR<$100 | Yesavg 10.8¢ | $54.77 | $80.2 | +$25.43 | 67% 4165-2026 (6191) |
 tetrase<$100 | Noavg 84¢ | $16.8 | $18.2 | +$1.4 | 61% 839-544 (1383) |
 PorxCTR<$100 | Yesavg 17.4¢ | $2.9 | $6.53 | +$3.63 | 66% 1482-769 (2251) |
Invested
$5,112.79
Value
$13.9K
PnL
+$8.8K
Record
73%
350-129 (479)
Marco-RubioCTRInvested
$1,562.29
Value
$405.81
PnL
$-1.1K
Record
53%
489-440 (929)
TalophexInvested
$207.5
Value
$227.5
PnL
+$20
Record
91%
929-95 (1024)
RememberAmalekCTRInvested
$208.94
Value
$108
PnL
-$100.94
Record
56%
973-770 (1743)
CarCTR<$100Invested
$54.77
Value
$80.2
PnL
+$25.43
Record
67%
4165-2026 (6191)
tetrase<$100Invested
$16.8
Value
$18.2
PnL
+$1.4
Record
61%
839-544 (1383)
PorxCTR<$100Invested
$2.9
Value
$6.53
PnL
+$3.63
Record
66%
1482-769 (2251)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
91.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.