Will Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL AFC Championship?

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (63%) · No at 83¢ · $4K held · ends Apr 1, 2027

Yes18¢No82¢Ends Thu, Apr 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 63%

Total Value

$4.2K

Combined PnL

$161.36

Smart Money Entry

87.8¢ → 82.5¢

-6% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 83%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes18%

No83%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$2.4K

Total Shares2,894

Combined PnL-$149.59

Yes3 traders

Total Value$1.8K

Total Shares10,504

Combined PnL+$310.96

No — 63%Yes — 37%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Late

1799h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

6 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (3 on No) and the top 1000 (5 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 3

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 100% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 60% · 5

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Nooserac	Noavg 88¢	$2.0K	$1.8K	-$122.22	52% 5832-5416 (11248)
0X 0x91c363acd95bb150d4fd28912737eaf6125b409fCTR	Yesavg 14.5¢	$1.4K	$1.6K	+$282.95	69% 156-69 (225)
StudyPrediction	Noavg 87.1¢	$521.71	$493.83	-$27.89	53% 4588-4006 (8594)
JA JAMJAMJAM4CTR	Yesavg 19¢	$7.62	$100.12	-$8.58	73% 3600-1329 (4929)
PE peepeepooppoopCTR<$100	Yesavg 11.1¢	$25.29	$91.79	+$36.59	52% 2050-1868 (3918)
UbuntuTrading<$100	Noavg 89.5¢	$44.29	$44.56	+$0.27	57% 3069-2356 (5425)
probability<$100	Noavg 80¢	$11.2	$11.48	+$0.35	42% 1368-1924 (3292)
RA rated<$100	Noavg 92.4¢	$1.07	$0.95	-$0.11	29% 2865-6952 (9817)

Nooserac

Invested

$1,955.45

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$122.22

Record

52%

5832-5416 (11248)

0x91c363acd95bb150d4fd28912737eaf6125b409fCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,363.16

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$282.95

Record

69%

156-69 (225)

StudyPrediction

Invested

$521.71

Value

$493.83

PnL

-$27.89

Record

53%

4588-4006 (8594)

JAMJAMJAM4CTR

Yes

Invested

$7.62

Value

$100.12

PnL

-$8.58

Record

73%

3600-1329 (4929)

peepeepooppoopCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$25.29

Value

$91.79

PnL

+$36.59

Record

52%

2050-1868 (3918)

UbuntuTrading<$100

Invested

$44.29

Value

$44.56

PnL

+$0.27

Record

57%

3069-2356 (5425)

probability<$100

Invested

$11.2

Value

$11.48

PnL

+$0.35

Record

42%

1368-1924 (3292)

rated<$100

Invested

$1.07

Value

$0.95

PnL

-$0.11

Record

29%

2865-6952 (9817)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 83%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Late

1799h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

6 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (3 on No) and the top 1000 (5 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 3

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 100% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 60% · 5

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance84.2%

82.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$18.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

118.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.