Will Lee Shu-chuan win the next New Taipei Mayor election?

4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (80%) · Yes at 55¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 29

Yes55¢No45¢Ends Sun, Nov 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 80%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.2K

Combined PnL

-$348.51

Smart Money Entry

67.7¢ → 54.5¢

-19% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 55%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 5 top traders (80%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes55%

No46%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$2.6K

Total Shares4,842

Combined PnL-$347.1

No1 trader

Total Value$24.35

Total Shares54

Combined PnL-$1.41

Yes — 80%No — 20%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-20 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 74%

Freshness

Late

710h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 50% · 2

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
december	Yesavg 77¢	$1.5K	$1.1K	-$440	83% 129-27 (156)
ArmageddonRewardsBilly	Yesavg 70.5¢	$818.38	$840.08	+$21.7	56% 15372-11923 (27295)
SN SnapElectionAvoider	Yesavg 53.3¢	$521.37	$518.88	+$17.09	53% 1174-1056 (2230)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedARB<$100	Yesavg 53.8¢	$449.26	$433.76	-$15.5	53% 6690-5887 (12577)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 53.8¢	$238.29	$234.58	-$17.34
└ No leg	Noavg 46.3¢	$204.94	$199.17	+$1.84
0X 0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73ARB<$100	Yesavg 53.1¢	$198.23	$181.29	-$5.72	39% 175-269 (444)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 53.1¢	$98.23	$98.06	+$2.61
└ No leg	Noavg 50¢	$92.48	$83.23	-$8.32
The-Joker	Yesavg 35¢	$97.12	$147.07	+$54.11	68% 1507-701 (2208)
YO YouSayUpISayDownCTR<$100	Noavg 43.2¢	$25.76	$24.35	-$1.41	53% 3726-3240 (6966)

december

Yes

Invested

$1,540

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$440

Record

83%

129-27 (156)

ArmageddonRewardsBilly

Yes

Invested

$818.38

Value

$840.08

PnL

+$21.7

Record

56%

15372-11923 (27295)

SnapElectionAvoider

Yes

Invested

$521.37

Value

$518.88

PnL

+$17.09

Record

53%

1174-1056 (2230)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$449.26

Value

$433.76

PnL

-$15.5

Record

53%

6690-5887 (12577)

Both legs:

Yes$238.2953.8¢-$17.34

No$204.9446.3¢+$1.84

0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73ARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$198.23

Value

$181.29

PnL

-$5.72

Record

39%

175-269 (444)

Both legs:

Invested

$97.12

Value

$147.07

PnL

+$54.11

Record

68%

1507-701 (2208)

YouSayUpISayDownCTR<$100

Invested

$25.76

Value

$24.35

PnL

-$1.41

Record

53%

3726-3240 (6966)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 55%

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 5 top traders (80%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-20 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 74%

Freshness

Late

710h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 50% · 2

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance56.5%

54.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$77.03

Max Loss

-$100.00

177.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.