Will Linke be in the next Sachsen-Anhalt state government?
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (71%) · No at 93¢ · $2K held · ended Sep 7
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 71%
$2.5K
$369.2
77.1¢ → 93.3¢
+21% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 93%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Cooling
-9 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 72%
Freshness
Late
146h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 rabbit007 | Noavg 68.9¢ | $719.57 | $976.37 | +$258.89 | 53% 355-312 (667) |
ST StraddleSeller | Noavg 84¢ | $670.87 | $742.94 | +$72.07 | 61% 183-119 (302) |
RA Railcool | Noavg 81¢ | $405 | $467.25 | +$57.5 | 51% 86-81 (167) |
 macrosteaks | Noavg 90.8¢ | $125.08 | $128.03 | +$2.95 | 54% 3274-2742 (6016) |
TI title1<$100 | Noavg 68.5¢ | $85.44 | $75.94 | +$24.72 | 53% 941-842 (1783) |
 YoungAlphaGoatCTR | Yesavg 12.4¢ | $113.11 | $56.88 | -$56.23 | 45% 383-477 (860) |
 viniiCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.8¢ | $4.98 | $14.27 | +$9.29 | 73% 2835-1046 (3881) |
rabbit007Invested
$719.57
Value
$976.37
PnL
+$258.89
Record
53%
355-312 (667)
Invested
$670.87
Value
$742.94
PnL
+$72.07
Record
61%
183-119 (302)
Invested
$405
Value
$467.25
PnL
+$57.5
Record
51%
86-81 (167)
macrosteaksInvested
$125.08
Value
$128.03
PnL
+$2.95
Record
54%
3274-2742 (6016)
Invested
$85.44
Value
$75.94
PnL
+$24.72
Record
53%
941-842 (1783)
YoungAlphaGoatCTRInvested
$113.11
Value
$56.88
PnL
-$56.23
Record
45%
383-477 (860)
viniiCTR<$100Invested
$4.98
Value
$14.27
PnL
+$9.29
Record
73%
2835-1046 (3881)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
93.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.