Will Louisiana enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2027?
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 82¢ · $29K held · ends Jan 1, 2028
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 50%
$29.4K
$5.3K
67.7¢ → 81.5¢
+20% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 82%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Late
904h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
WH whig | Noavg 67.6¢ | $20.3K | $24.5K | +$4.2K | — 0-2 (2) |
1N 1nvoker1CTR | Yesavg 14.1¢ | $3.4K | $4.5K | +$1.1K | — 0-16 (16) |
XT xtxpleasecallme | Noavg 82¢ | $195.03 | $193.84 | -$1.19 | 68% 47-22 (69) |
EL Elias.Thornwell | Noavg 74.5¢ | $123.68 | $135.28 | +$11.6 | — 4-2 (6) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100 | Yesavg 20¢ | $24.78 | $22.92 | -$1.86 | 42% 16-22 (38) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 14.7¢ | $16.51 | $20.7 | +$4.2 | 53% 86-75 (161) |
Invested
$20,307.15
Value
$24.5K
PnL
+$4.2K
Record
—
0-2 (2)
Invested
$3,449.04
Value
$4.5K
PnL
+$1.1K
Record
—
0-16 (16)
Invested
$195.03
Value
$193.84
PnL
-$1.19
Record
68%
47-22 (69)
Invested
$123.68
Value
$135.28
PnL
+$11.6
Record
—
4-2 (6)
Invested
$24.78
Value
$22.92
PnL
-$1.86
Record
42%
16-22 (38)
Invested
$16.51
Value
$20.7
PnL
+$4.2
Record
53%
86-75 (161)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
81.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.