Consensus PnL $317K · win rate 62% (358–221, n=579) · PM monthly #543 · holds 54 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$317.1K
Record
358W / 221L
Win Rate
62.0%
of 579 settled
Batting Avg
56.7%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1087
Source
PM monthly #543
Record (90 d)
103/198 · 52%
Trades
2,273
Markets
914
Volume
$4.0M
Top consensus positions
54 in listed consensus markets · 42 of 54 on the consensus side (78%)- Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?No $22K · now 98¢with the consensus (86% of 50)
- Will Russia invade a NATO country by December 31, 2026?No $19K · now 97¢ · in at 93¢with the consensus (86% of 14)
- Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes $19K · now 3¢ · in at 1¢with the consensus (100% of 26)
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?No $12K · now 88¢ · in at 52¢with the consensus (51% of 60)
- Will FK Radnicki Nis vs. FK Zeleznicar Pancevo end in a draw?Yes $8.7K · now 97¢ · in at 93¢with the consensus (50% of 14)
- Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?Yes $6.9K · now 69¢ · in at 78¢with the consensus (87% of 57)
- Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026?No $6.4K · now 81¢ · in at 68¢with the consensus (64% of 14)
- Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027?No $5.8K · now 95¢ · in at 73¢with the consensus (84% of 19)
Specialties
615 settled consensus markets · held side won 47% at an average entry of 40¢- Politics
+20 pts
side won 59% of 63 · avg entry 39¢
ROI +20%
- Geopolitics
+5 pts
side won 45% of 242 · avg entry 40¢
ROI +3%
- Elections
+4 pts
side won 41% of 165 · avg entry 38¢
ROI +3%
Weakest: Finance — held side won 27% of 26 at an average 34¢ entry (−7 pts against the price), ROI +4%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 46%(won 13% of 280)
- 30–50¢: 17%(won 43% of 107)
- 50–70¢: 13%(won 82% of 78)
- 70¢ and up: 24%(won 95% of 150)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.