Will Mark Carney be TIME Person of the Year 2026?
7 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 83¢ · $836 held · ends Dec 31
⚠️
Avoid
No
7
No 100%
$835.58
$37.58
78.8¢ → 82.5¢
+5% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 83%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 7 top traders (100%)4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 72%
Freshness
Late
686h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Dragontree | Noavg 80¢ | $423.41 | $436.64 | +$13.23 | 58% 1250-888 (2138) |
DI Dimpled-Foal | Noavg 76¢ | $150.5 | $163.35 | +$12.85 | 54% 229-195 (424) |
 PaddyAlpha | Noavg 80¢ | $122.6 | $126.23 | +$3.63 | 59% 986-684 (1670) |
 cambridgeisaac<$100 | Noavg 75¢ | $45.01 | $49.51 | +$4.5 | 57% 1114-837 (1951) |
 2B9S<$100 | Noavg 78¢ | $46.4 | $49.5 | +$3.1 | 18% 3833-17376 (21209) |
 CosmicCedar<$100 | Noavg 79¢ | $5.53 | $5.77 | +$0.25 | 60% 798-532 (1330) |
 archaic<$100 | Noavg 82¢ | $4.56 | $4.58 | +$0.03 | 85% 1906-339 (2245) |
DragontreeInvested
$423.41
Value
$436.64
PnL
+$13.23
Record
58%
1250-888 (2138)
Invested
$150.5
Value
$163.35
PnL
+$12.85
Record
54%
229-195 (424)
PaddyAlphaInvested
$122.6
Value
$126.23
PnL
+$3.63
Record
59%
986-684 (1670)
cambridgeisaac<$100Invested
$45.01
Value
$49.51
PnL
+$4.5
Record
57%
1114-837 (1951)
2B9S<$100Invested
$46.4
Value
$49.5
PnL
+$3.1
Record
18%
3833-17376 (21209)
CosmicCedar<$100Invested
$5.53
Value
$5.77
PnL
+$0.25
Record
60%
798-532 (1330)
archaic<$100Invested
$4.56
Value
$4.58
PnL
+$0.03
Record
85%
1906-339 (2245)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
82.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.