Will MetaMask launch a token by December 31, 2026?
4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (57%) · No at 93¢ · $3K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 57%
$3.2K
$691.14
65.3¢ → 93¢
+42% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 93%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 78%
Freshness
Late
4876h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
57% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 XieGuangKun | Noavg 56.7¢ | $850 | $1.4K | +$545 | 51% 367-349 (716) |
 PaddyAlpha | Noavg 79.8¢ | $2.0K | $1.1K | +$53.91 | 59% 986-684 (1670) |
 -Yang- | Noavg 63.2¢ | $418.96 | $655.08 | +$214.5 | 82% 275-61 (336) |
SE SeniorLaghettoCTR | Yesavg 18¢ | $142.2 | $55.3 | -$86.9 | 69% 404-180 (584) |
 2B9SCTR<$100 | Yesavg 18.9¢ | $66.01 | $24.5 | -$41.52 | 18% 3833-17376 (21209) |
TT tttt123<$100 | Noavg 61.1¢ | $11.97 | $17.48 | +$5.51 | 72% 1535-585 (2120) |
 NadmiCTR<$100 | Yesavg 4¢ | $0.85 | $1.48 | +$0.64 | 47% 2036-2278 (4314) |
XieGuangKunInvested
$850
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$545
Record
51%
367-349 (716)
PaddyAlphaInvested
$2,035.95
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$53.91
Record
59%
986-684 (1670)
-Yang-Invested
$418.96
Value
$655.08
PnL
+$214.5
Record
82%
275-61 (336)
Invested
$142.2
Value
$55.3
PnL
-$86.9
Record
69%
404-180 (584)
2B9SCTR<$100Invested
$66.01
Value
$24.5
PnL
-$41.52
Record
18%
3833-17376 (21209)
Invested
$11.97
Value
$17.48
PnL
+$5.51
Record
72%
1535-585 (2120)
NadmiCTR<$100Invested
$0.85
Value
$1.48
PnL
+$0.64
Record
47%
2036-2278 (4314)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
93.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.