Will Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?

5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (71%) · Yes at 72¢ · $6K held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes72¢No28¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 71%

Total Value

$6.5K

Combined PnL

$2.1K

Smart Money Entry

45.4¢ → 72¢

+59% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 72%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes72%

No28%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes5 traders

Total Value$6.1K

Total Shares8,576

Combined PnL+$2.2K

No2 traders

Total Value$367.08

Total Shares1,217

Combined PnL-$56.27

Yes — 71%No — 29%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Late

726h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

5 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 83% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 67% · 3

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HA Hauchn	Yesavg 45.9¢	$2.9K	$4.5K	+$1.6K	37% 64-107 (171)
DI Dimpled-Foal	Yesavg 46¢	$469.58	$707.31	+$259.01	54% 229-195 (424)
rabbit007	Yesavg 64.3¢	$321.15	$354.47	+$33.32	53% 355-309 (664)
NadmiCTR	Noavg 34¢	$340	$290	-$50	47% 2036-2278 (4314)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271	Yesavg 41.5¢	$170.02	$284.59	+$114.57	32% 4495-9638 (14133)
GenaTheBondKilIer	Yesavg 10.6¢	$37.52	$240.69	+$203.17	51% 527-509 (1036)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Noavg 45.2¢	$83.35	$77.08	-$6.27	53% 6690-5887 (12577)

Hauchn

Yes

Invested

$2,912.05

Value

$4.5K

PnL

+$1.6K

Record

37%

64-107 (171)

Dimpled-Foal

Yes

Invested

$469.58

Value

$707.31

PnL

+$259.01

Record

54%

229-195 (424)

rabbit007

Yes

Invested

$321.15

Value

$354.47

PnL

+$33.32

Record

53%

355-309 (664)

NadmiCTR

Invested

$340

Value

$290

PnL

-$50

Record

47%

2036-2278 (4314)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271

Yes

Invested

$170.02

Value

$284.59

PnL

+$114.57

Record

32%

4495-9638 (14133)

GenaTheBondKilIer

Yes

Invested

$37.52

Value

$240.69

PnL

+$203.17

Record

51%

527-509 (1036)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Invested

$83.35

Value

$77.08

PnL

-$6.27

Record

53%

6690-5887 (12577)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 72%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Late

726h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

5 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 83% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 67% · 3

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance73.8%

72.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$35.52

Max Loss

-$100.00

135.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.