Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 6 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026?

6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (86%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $3 held · ends Jan 8, 2027

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Fri, Jan 8, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 86%

Total Value

$2.51

Combined PnL

-$118.09

Smart Money Entry

5.6¢ → 0.1¢

-99% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 7 top traders (86%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No1 trader

Total Value$1.18

Total Shares1

Combined PnL+$0.39

Yes6 traders

Total Value$1.32

Total Shares2,644

Combined PnL-$118.48

No — 14%Yes — 86%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 66%

Freshness

Late

4875h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

193 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

86% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 66% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 83% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 1

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RA rated<$100	Noavg 67.1¢	$0.79	$1.18	+$0.39	29% 2865-6952 (9817)
NadmiCTR<$100	Yesavg 4¢	$50	$0.63	-$49.38	47% 2036-2278 (4314)
HO HourglassCTR<$100	Yes	$0.25	$0.25	-$17.61	77% 8889-2658 (11547)
0X 0x75d1B199a96801338e67a6eFAa35C0028eA87A5F-1770658242710CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.6¢	$32.88	$0.21	-$32.67	51% 2097-1976 (4073)
WO wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.1¢	$0	$0.16	+$0.16	33% 6263-12990 (19253)
CO cocococococoCTR<$100	Yesavg 20¢	$19.06	$0.05	-$19.01	52% 1665-1535 (3200)
flow-trader-at-optiverCTR<$100	Yesavg 2¢	$0	$0.03	+$0.03	39% 965-1508 (2473)

rated<$100

Invested

$0.79

Value

$1.18

PnL

+$0.39

Record

29%

2865-6952 (9817)

NadmiCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$50

Value

$0.63

PnL

-$49.38

Record

47%

2036-2278 (4314)

HourglassCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.25

Value

$0.25

PnL

-$17.61

Record

77%

8889-2658 (11547)

0x75d1B199a96801338e67a6eFAa35C0028eA87A5F-1770658242710CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$32.88

Value

$0.21

PnL

-$32.67

Record

51%

2097-1976 (4073)

wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$0.16

PnL

+$0.16

Record

33%

6263-12990 (19253)

cocococococoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$19.06

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$19.01

Record

52%

1665-1535 (3200)

flow-trader-at-optiverCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$0.03

PnL

+$0.03

Record

39%

965-1508 (2473)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 7 top traders (86%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 66%

Freshness

Late

4875h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

193 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

86% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 66% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 83% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 1

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.