Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (95%). 6 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to between 40 and 60 years in prison?
6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (86%) · Yes at 5.3¢ · $67 held · ends Dec 31, 2027
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
7
Yes 86%
$67.36
-$7.92
17.8¢ → 5.3¢
-71% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 5%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 7 top traders (86%)Underdog side (market favors No 95%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Building
+3 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 70%
Freshness
Late
4826h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
49 consensus flips
86% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 70% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 flow-trader-at-optiverCTR | Yesavg 29.9¢ | $162.16 | $28.5 | +$28.5 | 39% 965-1508 (2473) |
 ScottyNoooCTR<$100 | Yesavg 10.6¢ | $36.24 | $17.95 | -$18.28 | 50% 1537-1513 (3050) |
 paddaaCTR<$100 | Yesavg 7.2¢ | $26.49 | $10.68 | -$15.8 | 56% 836-645 (1481) |
0X 0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73CTR<$100 | Yesavg 6.3¢ | $10.39 | $8.59 | -$1.8 | 39% 175-269 (444) |
RA rated<$100 | Noavg 84¢ | $0.84 | $0.95 | +$0.11 | 29% 2865-6952 (9817) |
YO YouSayUpISayDownCTR<$100 | Yes | $0.35 | $0.35 | -$0.97 | 53% 3726-3240 (6966) |
WO wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100 | Yesavg 13.1¢ | $0 | $0.34 | +$0.34 | 33% 6263-12990 (19253) |
flow-trader-at-optiverCTRInvested
$162.16
Value
$28.5
PnL
+$28.5
Record
39%
965-1508 (2473)
ScottyNoooCTR<$100Invested
$36.24
Value
$17.95
PnL
-$18.28
Record
50%
1537-1513 (3050)
paddaaCTR<$100Invested
$26.49
Value
$10.68
PnL
-$15.8
Record
56%
836-645 (1481)
Invested
$10.39
Value
$8.59
PnL
-$1.8
Record
39%
175-269 (444)
Invested
$0.84
Value
$0.95
PnL
+$0.11
Record
29%
2865-6952 (9817)
Invested
$0.35
Value
$0.35
PnL
-$0.97
Record
53%
3726-3240 (6966)
Invested
$0
Value
$0.34
PnL
+$0.34
Record
33%
6263-12990 (19253)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
5.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.