Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 7 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Nottingham Forest win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?

7 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $213 held · ends May 30, 2027

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sun, May 30, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$213.22

Combined PnL

$-12.4K

Smart Money Entry

2.9¢ → 0.1¢

-98% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 7 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes7 traders

Total Value$213.22

Total Shares426,437

Combined PnL$-12.4K

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Late

679h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BR BreakTheBankCTR	Yesavg 3.1¢	$12.3K	$200	$-12.1K	43% 572-748 (1320)
LE leegunnerCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.1¢	$20	$10	-$10	41% 1281-1831 (3112)
0X 0xf475402430f3dc9611abeea737fe69dd02f48486CTR	Yesavg 3.3¢	$115.01	$1.76	-$113.25	11% 20-166 (186)
UbuntuTradingCTR<$100	Yes	$1.09	$1.09	-$74.45	57% 3070-2358 (5428)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.2¢	$17.62	$0.21	-$17.41	56% 14488-11246 (25734)
HO HourglassCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.2¢	$7.37	$0.09	-$7.28	77% 8891-2659 (11550)
DR DreamwireCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.3¢	$5.71	$0.07	-$5.64	83% 2715-550 (3265)

BreakTheBankCTR

Yes

Invested

$12,347.41

Value

$200

PnL

$-12.1K

Record

43%

572-748 (1320)

leegunnerCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$20

Value

$10

PnL

-$10

Record

41%

1281-1831 (3112)

0xf475402430f3dc9611abeea737fe69dd02f48486CTR

Yes

Invested

$115.01

Value

$1.76

PnL

-$113.25

Record

11%

20-166 (186)

UbuntuTradingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.09

Value

$1.09

PnL

-$74.45

Record

57%

3070-2358 (5428)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$17.62

Value

$0.21

PnL

-$17.41

Record

56%

14488-11246 (25734)

HourglassCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.37

Value

$0.09

PnL

-$7.28

Record

77%

8891-2659 (11550)

DreamwireCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.71

Value

$0.07

PnL

-$5.64

Record

83%

2715-550 (3265)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 7 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Late

679h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.