Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on November 30, 2026?

3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (43%) · No at 59¢ · $803 held · ends Dec 1

Yes42¢No58¢Ends Tue, Dec 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 43%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$802.69

Combined PnL

$181.21

Smart Money Entry

39.7¢ → 58.5¢

+47% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 59%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 7 top traders (43%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes42%

No59%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$602.77

Total Shares1,022

Combined PnL+$197.55

Yes4 traders

Total Value$139.52

Total Shares339

Combined PnL-$16.34

No — 43%Yes — 57%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Late

186h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

3 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (7 on Yes) disagree here.

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

sniperNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 57% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
WordleAddict	Noavg 35.5¢	$195.57	$324.87	+$129.3	— 0-2 (2)
SteveTheFish	Noavg 46.8¢	$154.86	$195.31	+$40.45	—
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 39.1¢	$54.8	$82.6	+$27.8	53% 6040-5408 (11448)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR	Yesavg 53.7¢	$323.23	$75.92	-$4.76	40% 3231-4852 (8083)
LornaPredictsARB<$100	Yesavg 61.3¢	$108.55	$60.01	-$13.54	12% 34-257 (291)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 61.3¢	$58.88	$39.36	-$23.48
└ No leg	Noavg 40.3¢	$14.11	$20.65	+$9.94
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100	Yesavg 34.6¢	$28.71	$34.45	+$5.73	47% 117-130 (247)
0X 0xAe81145A62f51cb1CTR<$100	Yesavg 64.3¢	$35.35	$22.55	-$12.8	— 0-1 (1)
EL Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100	Yesavg 69¢	$11.12	$6.61	-$4.51	86% 31-5 (36)

WordleAddict

Invested

$195.57

Value

$324.87

PnL

+$129.3

Record

—

0-2 (2)

SteveTheFish

Invested

$154.86

Value

$195.31

PnL

+$40.45

Record

—

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$54.8

Value

$82.6

PnL

+$27.8

Record

53%

6040-5408 (11448)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR

Yes

Invested

$323.23

Value

$75.92

PnL

-$4.76

Record

40%

3231-4852 (8083)

LornaPredictsARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$108.55

Value

$60.01

PnL

-$13.54

Record

12%

34-257 (291)

Both legs:

Yes$58.8861.3¢-$23.48

No$14.1140.3¢+$9.94

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$28.71

Value

$34.45

PnL

+$5.73

Record

47%

117-130 (247)

0xAe81145A62f51cb1CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$35.35

Value

$22.55

PnL

-$12.8

Record

—

0-1 (1)

Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$11.12

Value

$6.61

PnL

-$4.51

Record

86%

31-5 (36)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 59%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

3 of 7 top traders (43%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Late

186h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

3 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (7 on Yes) disagree here.

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

sniperNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 57% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance60.5%

58.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$65.39

Max Loss

-$100.00

165.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.