Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (64%). 2 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on November 30, 2026?

2 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (29%) · Yes at 36¢ · $920 held · ends Dec 1

Yes36¢No64¢Ends Tue, Dec 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 29%

Total Value

$919.87

Combined PnL

$106.64

Smart Money Entry

27.2¢ → 35.8¢

+32% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 36%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 7 top traders (29%)Underdog side (market favors No 64%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes36%

No64%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$673.1

Total Shares1,883

Combined PnL+$161.67

No5 traders

Total Value$246.44

Total Shares384

Combined PnL-$55.03

Yes — 29%No — 71%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

221h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

29% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 71% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SteveTheFishCTR	Yesavg 27.2¢	$509.56	$670.24	+$160.68	—
XT xtxpleasecallme	Noavg 79.2¢	$205.29	$147.77	-$34.1	40% 3231-4852 (8083)
Haradwaith<$100	Noavg 82.6¢	$66.08	$51.4	-$14.68	38% 61-99 (160)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 68.8¢	$26.45	$24.68	-$1.76	53% 6040-5408 (11448)
NO northdrawer<$100	Noavg 86.6¢	$51.93	$19.28	-$3.69	27% 947-2550 (3497)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100	Noavg 79.7¢	$4.1	$3.31	-$0.8	63% 445-264 (709)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100	Yesavg 23.4¢	$1.87	$2.86	+$0.99	47% 117-130 (247)

SteveTheFishCTR

Yes

Invested

$509.56

Value

$670.24

PnL

+$160.68

Record

—

xtxpleasecallme

Invested

$205.29

Value

$147.77

PnL

-$34.1

Record

40%

3231-4852 (8083)

Haradwaith<$100

Invested

$66.08

Value

$51.4

PnL

-$14.68

Record

38%

61-99 (160)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$26.45

Value

$24.68

PnL

-$1.76

Record

53%

6040-5408 (11448)

northdrawer<$100

Invested

$51.93

Value

$19.28

PnL

-$3.69

Record

27%

947-2550 (3497)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100

Invested

$4.1

Value

$3.31

PnL

-$0.8

Record

63%

445-264 (709)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.87

Value

$2.86

PnL

+$0.99

Record

47%

117-130 (247)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 36%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 7 top traders (29%)Underdog side (market favors No 64%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

221h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

29% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 71% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance37.7%

35.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$165.39

Max Loss

-$100.00

265.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.