Will OpenAI announce earbuds or headphones in 2026?
6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (86%) · No at 88¢ · $2K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 86%
$1.7K
$201.83
71.5¢ → 87.5¢
+22% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 88%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 86%
Freshness
Late
4826h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
24 consensus flips
86% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 tourists | Noavg 75.5¢ | $933 | $1.1K | +$111.07 | 66% 427-222 (649) |
SH shiifoo | Noavg 67.4¢ | $208.2 | $369.98 | +$21.17 | 59% 3430-2345 (5775) |
 Car<$100 | Noavg 86.6¢ | $85.17 | $84.56 | +$0.86 | 67% 4165-2026 (6191) |
PE peepeepooppoop<$100 | Noavg 46¢ | $36.8 | $68.8 | +$33.2 | 52% 2050-1868 (3918) |
TT tttt123<$100 | Noavg 63.4¢ | $42.03 | $56.98 | +$16.27 | 72% 1535-585 (2120) |
 2B9S<$100 | Noavg 6¢ | $1.67 | $28.73 | +$27.06 | 18% 3833-17376 (21209) |
 GohstCTR<$100 | Yesavg 34¢ | $12.92 | $5.13 | -$7.79 | 49% 738-770 (1508) |
touristsInvested
$933
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$111.07
Record
66%
427-222 (649)
Invested
$208.2
Value
$369.98
PnL
+$21.17
Record
59%
3430-2345 (5775)
Car<$100Invested
$85.17
Value
$84.56
PnL
+$0.86
Record
67%
4165-2026 (6191)
Invested
$36.8
Value
$68.8
PnL
+$33.2
Record
52%
2050-1868 (3918)
Invested
$42.03
Value
$56.98
PnL
+$16.27
Record
72%
1535-585 (2120)
2B9S<$100Invested
$1.67
Value
$28.73
PnL
+$27.06
Record
18%
3833-17376 (21209)
GohstCTR<$100Invested
$12.92
Value
$5.13
PnL
-$7.79
Record
49%
738-770 (1508)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
87.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.