Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?
6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (86%) · No at 83¢ · $5K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 86%
$5.3K
$641.5
73.4¢ → 83¢
+13% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 83%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 53%
Freshness
Late
647h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
86% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 53% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 tja | Noavg 68.7¢ | $1.2K | $1.4K | +$246.64 | 73% 867-323 (1190) |
 Contentious-Dinnerdate | Noavg 66.3¢ | $1.1K | $1.4K | +$273.4 | 50% 415-417 (832) |
DE dedidanc | Noavg 83.1¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | -$1.66 | 57% 103-77 (180) |
 Hannah-Montana | Noavg 73¢ | $828.98 | $942.54 | +$113.56 | 67% 209-101 (310) |
 iutwpfal | Noavg 86.1¢ | $1.2K | $440.59 | +$28.46 | 57% 412-313 (725) |
 PMTraderAdam<$100 | Noavg 80¢ | $64.1 | $66.5 | +$2.4 | 77% 830-249 (1079) |
PE peepeepooppoopCTR<$100 | Yesavg 40.2¢ | $34.91 | $13.6 | -$21.3 | 52% 2050-1868 (3918) |
tjaInvested
$1,187.72
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$246.64
Record
73%
867-323 (1190)
Contentious-DinnerdateInvested
$1,088.97
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$273.4
Record
50%
415-417 (832)
Invested
$1,073.39
Value
$1.1K
PnL
-$1.66
Record
57%
103-77 (180)
Hannah-MontanaInvested
$828.98
Value
$942.54
PnL
+$113.56
Record
67%
209-101 (310)
iutwpfalInvested
$1,169.85
Value
$440.59
PnL
+$28.46
Record
57%
412-313 (725)
PMTraderAdam<$100Invested
$64.1
Value
$66.5
PnL
+$2.4
Record
77%
830-249 (1079)
Invested
$34.91
Value
$13.6
PnL
-$21.3
Record
52%
2050-1868 (3918)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
83.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.