Consensus PnL $143K · win rate 70% (674–286, n=960) · hand-picked wallet · holds 23 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$142.6K
Record
674W / 286L
Win Rate
70.0%
of 960 settled
Batting Avg
61.8%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#742
Source
Hand-picked
Trades
17,539
Markets
1,441
Volume
$1.6M
Top consensus positions
23 in listed consensus markets · 16 of 23 on the consensus side (70%)- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?No $30K · now 89¢ · in at 38¢with the consensus (57% of 54)
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?No $4.2K · now 84¢ · in at 75¢with the consensus (83% of 132)
- NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?No $2.2K · now 89¢ · in at 74¢with the consensus (67% of 51)
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?No $2.1K · now 94¢ · in at 68¢with the consensus (56% of 27)
- Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?No $2.0K · now 99¢ · in at 88¢with the consensus (100% of 13)
- Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?No $1.4K · now 83¢ · in at 69¢with the consensus (86% of 7)
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?No $1.4K · now 90¢ · in at 83¢with the consensus (66% of 32)
- Iran leadership change by December 31?No $1.0K · now 87¢ · in at 84¢with the consensus (75% of 53)
Specialties
1,132 settled consensus markets · held side won 70% at an average entry of 62¢- Mentions
+9 pts
side won 61% of 312 · avg entry 52¢
ROI +11%
- Geopolitics
+7 pts
side won 74% of 366 · avg entry 67¢
ROI +7%
- Economy
+22 pts
side won 100% of 15 · avg entry 78¢
ROI +7%
Weakest: Soccer — held side won 40% of 10 at an average 58¢ entry (−18 pts against the price), ROI −24%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 21%(won 21% of 241)
- 30–50¢: 12%(won 49% of 139)
- 50–70¢: 15%(won 78% of 172)
- 70¢ and up: 51%(won 93% of 580)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.